XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) had the week every holder had been waiting for. The SEC officially classified it as a digital commodity alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, ending years of regulatory limbo. The XRP price jumped to $1.60 on the news before falling back to $1.40 a week later.
The ruling removed the one barrier that had kept major institutions from touching XRP. But it landed in the middle of a Fed decision that spooked the entire crypto market, and a Bitcoin selloff that dragged everything down with it.
So what went wrong, and what would it take for the XRP price to recover from here?
What Happened to the XRP Price After the Commodity Ruling?
The SEC and CFTC released the commodity classification on March 17, and the XRP price responded immediately. It jumped to $1.60 on a 250% surge in trading volume, breaking out of the $1.35 to $1.45 range that had held it down for over a month. For a few hours, it looked like the breakout XRP holders had been waiting for since January, but the Fed ended that the next day.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, and projected only one rate cut for the rest of the year. Bitcoin dropped from around $74,000 to $70,000 within hours, with $158 million in leveraged positions liquidated as traders got caught on the wrong side. XRP fell 5.3% to $1.46, giving back most of the commodity rally in a single session.
But the selling didn’t stop there as Bitcoin continued drifting lower through the rest of the week. BTC broke below $70,000 by the weekend, dragging XRP down with it. The XRP price slid below $1.40 as trading volume dried up to half its 90-day average and ETF flows turned net negative for the first time in weeks. The commodity ruling gave the XRP price one day of momentum before macro conditions wiped it out.
Why the SEC Ruling Wasn’t Enough to Hold the XRP Price Up
The commodity classification removed the legal barrier that had kept institutions from holding XRP, but removing a barrier and creating demand are two different things. When Judge Torres ruled XRP was not a security in July 2023, the token surged 75% in days. This time, a more comprehensive ruling produced a spike that lasted less than 24 hours. The difference is the bearish macro environment the new ruling landed in.
Bitcoin still controls where the XRP price goes. The two move with a 0.84 correlation, and XRP amplifies Bitcoin’s swings by roughly 1.8 times. When Bitcoin dropped after the Fed decision, XRP had no way to hold its gains regardless of what the SEC had just announced. No crypto-specific catalyst has overpowered a Bitcoin selloff in 2026, and this was no different.
XRP ETF flows also confirm that the institutional money the ruling was supposed to attract hasn’t arrived yet. Weekly inflows dropped from over $200 million at launch to under $2 million by early March. The funds posted $28 million in net outflows the same week Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $767 million. Around 84% of XRP ETF flows are retail, which means the large institutional allocators that the commodity label was designed to unlock are still on the sidelines.
About 60% of XRP holders are sitting on unrealized losses, and that creates a ceiling on every rally. Good news pushes the XRP price up, but sellers who have been waiting months to break even step in immediately. The commodity ruling gave holders a reason to feel optimistic, but it didn’t remove the overhang of billions in XRP waiting for a high enough price to exit.
What Comes Next for XRP?
The SEC’s ETF deadline on March 27 is the next binary event for the XRP price. If the remaining applications get approved with the commodity classification behind them, it could be the trigger that finally brings institutional capital into XRP ETFs at scale. If Bitcoin also stabilizes above $68,000 and gives altcoins room to breathe, XRP could retest $1.60. If neither happens, $1.33 and $1.27 are the next support levels to watch.
The commodity ruling didn’t fail but just landed at the worst possible time. Regardless, the regulatory foundation under XRP is stronger than it has ever been, but none of that matters until the macro pressure lifts and gives the market a reason to act on it.
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