AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock rose 12% in Wednesday morning trading, bouncing from yesterday’s 4% decline. At the same time, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) shares also zoomed 12% higher after its own 4% drop on Tuesday.
The shared catalyst is growing speculation around an anticipated SpaceX IPO, which is pulling the entire commercial space sector higher as investors rush to position themselves in publicly traded space names. Reddit discussions referencing a potential SpaceX IPO filing have already begun circulating in r/stocks, and the sentiment spillover to ASTS and RKLB is visible in real time. Yesterday’s selloff looks, in hindsight, like noise.
For a deeper look at how these two companies stacked up heading into today’s reversal, our March 24 analysis breaks down the bull and bear case for each. The fundamentals driving today’s move deserve a closer look.
BlueBird 7 Puts AST SpaceMobile Back in Focus
AST SpaceMobile has a stock-specific catalyst layered on top of the sector-wide hype: BlueBird 7 was encapsulated at Cape Canaveral in February 2026 and is awaiting orbital launch. The company is targeting 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026, with launches planned every one to two months on average. BlueBird 7 getting off the ground would mark meaningful progress toward that goal.
The fundamentals backing this launch story are real. AST SpaceMobile posted Q4 2025 revenue of $54.31 million, beating the consensus estimate of $42.24 million by 28.56%. The company has over $1.2 billion in contracted partner commitments from telecom operators. AST SpaceMobile CEO Abel Avellan framed the year ahead clearly: “In 2026, we expect to scale our space-based direct-to-device network from initial commercial activation toward the start of broader commercial service.”
Some traders are also voicing frustration over insider activity and what they see as a lack of transparency around the launch schedule. Long-term AST SpaceMobile shareholders are betting on the institutional partnerships and the scale of the addressable market. Short-term traders, meanwhile, are watching every launch window.
Rocket Lab’s Backlog and Analyst Attention Drive the Rally
Rocket Lab’s participation in today’s rally is grounded in something more than sector sentiment. The company closed 2025 with full-year revenue of $601.8 million, up 37.96% year over year, and guided Q1 2026 revenue to $185 million to $200 million, implying roughly 57% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Furthermore, Rocket Lab’s non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 44.3% in Q4 2025, a signal that the business is getting more efficient as it scales.
The backlog tells the longer story. Rocket Lab’s backlog has surpassed $2 billion, anchored by an $816 million Space Development Agency contract to build 18 satellites, the largest single contract in company history.
Analyst coverage on RKLB stock reinforces the bullish case. Clear Street initiated coverage with an $88 price target and Deutsche Bank raised its target to $73, and the stock carries a consensus Moderate Buy rating.
The Competitive Backdrop and Factors to Consider
The competitive landscape in commercial space is intensifying, which is part of what makes the SpaceX IPO narrative so powerful as a sentiment driver. A SpaceX public listing would force investors to rethink valuations across every publicly traded space name.
Space stocks like ASTS and RKLB have surged over the past year, with ASTS up nearly 197% over the prior 12 months and RKLB up nearly 227%. They swing hard in both directions, though, as Tuesday’s decline and Wednesday’s surge both demonstrate.
Today’s 12% move in both stocks is the space sector reminding investors that the upside and the volatility come as a package deal. Watch whether shares of AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab hold their gains into the close, and any official BlueBird 7 launch confirmation from AST SpaceMobile will be a major catalyst to track.
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