If You Bought Lucid, Nio, or Rivian Stock 5 Years Ago, Here’s How Much You’ve Lost

Five years ago, electric vehicles looked like the trade of the decade. Legacy automakers were scrambling, government incentives were flowing, and a new generation of pure-play EV startups was drawing comparisons to Tesla’s early days. Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID | LCID Price Prediction), Nio (NYSE: NIO), and Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) each carried enormous promise. None of them delivered for investors.

Lucid went public via SPAC merger in July 2021, carrying a valuation that assumed it would become a luxury EV powerhouse. The company has since posted annual free cash flow of −$3.80 billion in 2025, with cost of revenue in Q4 2025 reaching $944.64 million against revenue of just $522.73 million. Shareholders’ equity collapsed 81.48% year over year to $717 million. Nio, the Chinese EV maker that listed in September 2018, rode a massive 2020–2021 wave before China’s EV market turned brutally competitive. Rivian debuted in November 2021 as one of the largest U.S. IPOs ever, pricing at $78 per share before opening near $106. Since then, the story has been one of persistent losses and execution challenges.

Your $1,000 Is Now a Fraction of That

Lucid — Since SPAC Merger (July 2021)

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $36.90
• Total Return: −96.3%
• S&P 500 (same period): ~$1,629 (+62.91%)

Nio — 5-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $153.90
• Total Return: −84.6%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,629 (+62.91%)

Rivian — Since IPO (November 2021)

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $151.00
• Total Return: −84.9%
• S&P 500 (same period): ~$1,629 (+62.91%)

While the S&P 500 turned $1,000 into roughly $1,629 over five years, all three EV names destroyed the majority of invested capital. One Reddit comment captured the sentiment plainly: “Down over 85% in $NIO anybody else? Is an investment like this worth holding?” The gap versus the benchmark is staggering across every holding period.

Where These Stocks Stand Today

Nio is arguably the most interesting of the three. It posted its first-ever quarterly GAAP profit in Q4 2025, with 124,807 deliveries, up 71.7% year over year, and a vehicle margin of 18.1%. Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $3.50 billion to $3.60 billion, up 103% to 109% year over year. The bull case is real, but current liabilities exceed current assets, a going concern disclosure remains on the books, and China’s EV market is intensely competitive.

Lucid’s deeply negative gross margins and reliance on Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund to stay solvent make it difficult to justify. Rivian’s Volkswagen joint venture and the upcoming R2 launch offer genuine upside, but 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of −$1.80 billion to −$2.10 billion means the losses run deep for years yet. All three remain speculative, and the past five years proved that speculation in pre-profit EV names carries real and lasting consequences.