Inflation just hit a two-year high, but Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) rallied instead of crashing. The March CPI report came in at 3.3%, almost entirely driven by surging oil and gasoline prices from the Iran war, and the crypto market responded by pushing BTC above $73,000.
Core inflation, which strips out energy and food, actually came in below expectations at 2.6%. If the Fed treats this as a temporary war-driven spike instead of inflation spreading across the broader economy, it gives them room to start cutting rates later this year. The Fed meets on April 28-29, and how it reads this report could be the difference between Bitcoin pushing toward $75,000 or falling back below $70,000.
Why Bitcoin Rallied After CPI Hit a Two-Year High
A 3.3% CPI reading sounds scary until you see where it actually came from. Gasoline prices rose 21.2% because the U.S. and Iran war shut down oil routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and gasoline alone made up nearly three-quarters of the total CPI increase. Everything else was calm—food was flat, shelter barely moved, and core inflation came in at 2.6% for the year, which is lower than the 2.7% that was expected.
So if everyday costs like rent, groceries, wages, and services were all going up at the same time, the Fed would have to keep rates high for longer. And Bitcoin would stay pinned in the $65,000–$75,000 range it has been stuck in since February. The Fed already held rates at 3.50-3.75% in March, and Powell told reporters that the U.S. hasn’t made as much progress on inflation as he’d hoped. This caused futures markets to price in zero cuts for the rest of 2026.
However, the soft core reading gave the Fed a reason to stay put instead of raising rates further. The inflation spike is clearly coming from oil, not from everyday prices across the economy, and that means the Fed can afford to wait and see how the war plays out before making any moves. CME’s FedWatch tool shows 98% of traders now expect the Fed to hold rates at the April 28-29 meeting rather than hike, and that alone removed a major risk that had been hanging over Bitcoin for weeks.
Bitcoin had already climbed from $68,000 to $72,000 after the U.S. and Iran ceasefire on April 7. The softer core reading in the CPI report added to that rally because it confirmed that everyday prices outside of oil aren’t rising. If the Islamabad peace talks this weekend are fruitful and oil prices start falling again, Bitcoin will have nothing holding it back anymore.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for April
Bitcoin is trading around $73,000 with about three weeks left in April. The CPI data gave the rally a push, but where BTC would finish the month depends on the CLARITY Act and the war situation. Here’s our Bitcoin price prediction for April based on three possible scenarios.
Bullish Case: $75,000–$80,000
The best-case scenario for Bitcoin in April starts with the Iran war actually ending. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, oil prices would come down quickly, and that changes everything. That alone would be enough to push the Bitcoin price past $75,000. Add in the CLARITY Act advancing through the Senate in late April, and you could see BTC testing $80,000 by the end of the month.
Base Case: $70,000–$75,000
A more likely outcome for April is that the ceasefire holds but the war doesn’t officially end. In that case, Bitcoin could stay in the same $70,000–$74,000 range it has been trading in. BTC has dropped after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings regardless of the outcome, so a short-term dip toward $70,000 after this month’s meeting is likely even if nothing changes.
We think this scenario has the most chances of playing out by the end of April, unless the CLARITY Act gives the market something concrete.
Bear Case: $65,000–$68,000
Bitcoin still has downside risk based on the ongoing war, especially if the peaceful talks break down. The IEA emergency reserves and tanker exemptions expire around April 19, and the ceasefire lasts until April 22. Should the war escalate again before then, the bearish pressure could crush the markets.
Oil prices will likely go back above $100, which would make the April CPI even worse than March. In such a scenario, Bitcoin would likely drop back toward the $65,000–$68,000 range it was before the ceasefire was agreed.
Will Bitcoin Break $75K Before the FOMC Meeting?
Bitcoin is closer to $75,000 than it has been since February, but it probably won’t break above it before the FOMC meeting on April 29. The war needs to end and oil prices need to come down before Bitcoin can push through $75K, and neither has happened yet.
However, big money is clearly positioning for when it does—Morgan Stanley just launched the cheapest Bitcoin ETF on the market, and Powell’s replacement Kevin Warsh has called Bitcoin “the new gold.” If the war winds down before Warsh takes over on May 15, he inherits a Fed with room to cut rates, and in such a scenario, Bitcoin could push through $75K and test $80K.
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