Buying Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) during a crash has been one of the most profitable moves in crypto over the past decade. The Bitcoin price bottomed at $15,500 in November 2022 after the FTX collapse, and within three years it hit a new all-time high of $126,000. That’s an 8x return for anyone who bought the BTC low.
In February, Bitcoin crashed to $60,000 after the Iran war escalated. Two months later, it has rallied back to $75,000. The Bitcoin price’s decline from $126,000 to $60,000 suggests that BTC might have bottomed and the heaviest selling could be done. So, is $75,000 actually a good price to buy Bitcoin in 2026, or could it still fall further?
How Bitcoin Dropped 41% from $126,000 ATH
Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025. Four days later, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, and the crypto market got wiped out. Over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, and BTC dropped below $105,000 during the same weekend.
Things only got worse after that, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $6 billion in outflows over the subsequent four months. Then the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, causing oil prices to climb above $100 per barrel—and BTC crashed all the way to $60,000. March inflation came in at 3.3%, which is a two-year high driven almost entirely by energy costs. Now, the Fed is holding rates at 3.50–3.75% with no cuts expected anytime soon.
This shows that the crypto market has been steadily declining due to the bearish pressure from the macroeconomic conditions. Tariffs, geopolitical war, surging oil prices, and a locked-up Fed did all the damage.
Despite all that, the biggest institutional buyer in the market—Strategy, with over 780,000 BTC on its books—kept buying through the worst of it. BTC has now bounced about 25% from its $60,000 low and now trades above $75,000, with the macro headwinds still the only thing that could hold it back.
Why $75,000 Could Be a Good Entry for Bitcoin
If you look at Bitcoin’s history after every halving—where the mining reward gets cut in half—the biggest price moves tend to come 12 to 18 months later. The April 2024 halving puts the window between now and October 2026, which is exactly where we are. Every previous cycle has followed this pattern, and the setup this time looks even stronger because buyers are snapping up far more Bitcoin than miners can produce.
Since the halving, miners only produce about 450 BTC per day. But the big buyers have been scooping up way more than that. Strategy bought over 85,000 BTC in Q1 alone, and Bitcoin ETFs were pulling in over 1,200 BTC per day at their peak. Exchange reserves have also dropped to around 2.7 million BTC—a 7-year low—so there’s simply less Bitcoin to be sold.
And at $75,000 per BTC, Bitcoin doesn’t even look expensive. The MVRV ratio—which compares Bitcoin’s market price to the average price everyone paid for their coins—is 1.8. In previous cycles, BTC didn’t top out until the ratio hit 3.5 to 4.0, so we’re nowhere near overheated.
On top of all that, Morgan Stanley and Schwab are both rolling out direct crypto trading for their clients in the first half of 2026. Between them, they manage over $15 trillion in assets that until now had no easy way into Bitcoin. If a small slice of that money flows in while there’s less and less BTC to go around, $75,000 could end up looking cheap in hindsight.
Why $75,000 Might Not Be the Bottom for Bitcoin in 2026
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has called every major top and bottom since 2011, and if it’s still intact, BTC already peaked in October 2025.
In every previous bear market after a cycle top, Bitcoin dropped by at least 77% in value from its all-time high. The February crash to $60,000 was a 52% drop, but still well short of what past bear markets have done. A 77% drawdown from $126,000 would put BTC around $29,000, which is extreme but is exactly the sort of move Bitcoin has made three times before.
Moreover, the bearish pressure from the war and macro conditions is far from over. The Islamabad peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down on April 12, and the ceasefire expires around April 22 with no new negotiations lined up. Oil prices are back above $100, which is keeping inflation high. CME FedWatch also shows a 98% chance the Fed holds rates steady at both the April and June meetings. And until rates come down, Bitcoin could be capped at $75,000.
So while $75,000 might look like a solid entry point, there’s a chance Bitcoin could fall another 15–25% before the war ends and macro conditions stabilize.
Is $75,000 a Good Entry Point for Bitcoin — or Should You Wait?
We think $75,000 is a reasonable entry for Bitcoin for those investing for 12 months or longer. The reason is that BTC is currently trading at the top of its previous cycle high, and that’s never happened before.
The 2013 peak was $1,150, and Bitcoin never came back down to that price during the 2018 bear market. The 2017 peak was $19,800, and Bitcoin never retested it during the 2022 crash either. This time, BTC dropped from $126,000 all the way back into the $69,000–$75,000 range where the last cycle topped out—and it’s holding there. In every previous cycle, buying near the old all-time high during a correction turned out to be a good trade over the following year.
Whether this ends up being a great entry or just an okay one comes down to two things: the war and the Fed. If the ceasefire holds or a deal gets done, oil prices would drop again, and the Fed gets room to cut. In such a case, Bitcoin could rally well past $100,000 before the year ends. Should the war drag on and rates stay put, eBitcoin could fall right back to the $65,000-$68,000 range.
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