Small-Cap Stocks May Be About to Pull Ahead, and IJR Will Win Big

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By Omor Ibne Ehsan Published

Quick Read

  • iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) — pure-play on 600 profitable U.S. small-cap companies with 0.1% expense ratio

  • IJR’s heavy allocation to financials (19%) and industrials (17%) positions it to benefit from rate cuts and domestic economic growth

  • Small-caps carry higher volatility and have underperformed large-caps for years; IJR rewards patient investors with long time horizons only

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Small-Cap Stocks May Be About to Pull Ahead, and IJR Will Win Big

© 24/7 Wall St.

For years, owning small-cap stocks felt like watching a neighbor’s party through a window. Large-cap indexes kept climbing, mega-cap technology names absorbed Wall Street’s attention, and smaller domestic companies sat quietly in the corner, undervalued and overlooked. That dynamic may finally be shifting.

SPY, the large-cap proxy, returned 64% over the past three years. IJR returned just 42% over the same period. That gap reflects a long stretch where capital chased size, brand, and global revenue. But bigger companies have seen their valuations slide in 2026, with Wall Street taking a pause on pushing them higher. When that happens, capital tends to find its way into smaller, cheaper, more domestic businesses.

What IJR Actually Does in a Portfolio

iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:IJR) is a pure-play on U.S. small-cap equities with no leverage, no options overlay, and no income engineering. It tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, holds roughly 600 domestic companies, and charges an expense ratio of just 0.0.6%, making it one of the most cost-efficient small-cap vehicles available.

The return engine is simple: underlying business appreciation across hundreds of small American companies. What makes IJR distinct from rivals is the profitability screen baked into the S&P SmallCap 600. A company must demonstrate real earnings before earning a spot in the index. That requirement filters out speculative deadweight that drags on broader small-cap benchmarks like the Russell 2000.

Financials represent roughly 17% of the fund, and Industrials make up 17%. Financials and industrials combined account for more than a third of the portfolio, making IJR highly sensitive to domestic economic conditions. When U.S. growth broadens and regional businesses gain pricing power, this fund benefits more directly than any large-cap index.

The Macro Setup That Could Unlock Small-Cap Gains

Small-caps carry more floating-rate debt than large-cap counterparts, which made the rate-hiking cycle of recent years particularly punishing. The case for 2026 is that rate cuts could provide meaningful relief, and capital that has been parked in mega-cap names may start trickling into these smaller, depressed companies.

Total U.S. corporate profits grew nearly 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, reaching $4.352 trillion. Domestic profits, at $3.725 trillion, comprised the vast majority of that total. That profit expansion is happening across exactly the sectors IJR is heaviest in: financials and industrials.

Look at what the fund’s actual holdings are doing. Glacier Bancorp (NYSE:GBCI), a regional bank holding company, grew quarterly revenue nearly 25% year-over-year and gained 28% over the past year. Installed Building Products (NYSE:IBP) posted record full-year revenue of nearly $3 billion and record adjusted EBITDA of roughly $519 million in 2025, while its stock climbed 70% over the past twelve months.

Watts Water Technologies (NYSE:WTS) delivered full-year 2025 revenue of $2.4 billion with free cash flow of $356 million and gained 55% over the past year. Axcelis Technologies (NASDAQ:ACLS), a semiconductor equipment maker, returned 130% over the past twelve months as memory chip demand recovered and its Q4 2025 revenue beat estimates by a wide margin at $238 million. These are profitable, operationally sound businesses that IJR’s quality screen was designed to capture.

Three Tradeoffs Every Small-Cap Investor Should Weigh

  1. Volatility is part of the deal. Small-cap stocks swing harder than large-caps in both directions. IJR’s holdings include names with betas well above 1, and market stress tends to hit smaller companies with less financial cushion more severely. Investors need a long enough time horizon to absorb drawdowns without panic-selling.
  2. Underperformance can last years, not months. Small-caps have been underperformers for the past few years, and the five-year return gap tells that story plainly. IJR returned just 5% annually over five years while SPY returned 12% annually over the same stretch. Structural shifts in market leadership take time, and anyone expecting an immediate reversal may get impatient before the thesis plays out.
  3. Rate sensitivity cuts both ways. If the Fed pauses or reverses course on cuts, small-cap stocks with floating-rate debt face renewed pressure on margins and refinancing costs. IJR’s profitability screen helps, but does not eliminate the exposure entirely.

IJR offers broad, low-cost exposure to profitable small-cap U.S. businesses, but it rewards patience over short-term positioning. Anyone expecting it to match large-cap returns in every environment will be disappointed more often than not.

Photo of Omor Ibne Ehsan
About the Author Omor Ibne Ehsan →

Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth and cyclical stocks that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as cryptocurrencies and penny stocks.

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