While investors in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) keep an eye on the success of its Robotaxi business and the progress of rival Waymo (owned by Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), real competition is sneaking around the corner and testing its vehicles in the Middle East.
Waymo gained some ground recently as it gets ready to launch in London. Tesla plans to expand soon to Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Miami, and Las Vegas. Each has to deal with the perception of safety and a small number of accidents. Each also has to deal with the fact that the service has to be approved by local authorities. The approval is as large a barrier as anything else, because it must be gained by city by city.
Most other US robotaxi experiments are simply an annoyance due to distribution. This includes a new alliance between Lucid and Nuro, which is powered by Nvidia chips.
Who would have figured that three Chinese robotaxi companies would be operating in the Middle East, particularly the UAE, which seems an improbable place to pick as a testing ground. According to CNBC, the companies in the region include Didi, WeRide, and Pony.ai (which may start in Dubai). A Chinese tech giant may also be in the region. CNBC adds, “Baidu ’s robotaxi unit Apollo Go also announced on April 1 that residents and visitors in Dubai could start hailing fully driverless rides through its app.”
The fact of the matter is that for Tesla to be a true success, it can’t just “win” in the US. The robotaxi business is clearly global and will eventually be part of transportation in hundreds of large cities. In this way, it is much like Tesla’s EV distribution. It is not enough just to win in America.
Ultimately, Tesla’s Robotaxi problem is the same hurdle it hit in its EV business. It was fairly early out of the gate. And, it has brand equity. However, the market became crowded, particularly by Chinese products. For the time being, the robotaxi industry could be crowded by companies with huge bank accounts and startups. Even though some of these are unsuccessful, the market will be splintered.
Does Tesla have the best technology? Maybe, but how does that stand up against a flood?