XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.45—right at the resistance level that’s capped every rally this year—but the CLARITY Act, the bill that would make XRP’s commodity status permanent federal law, is starting to look shaky. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said on Fox Business that the markup may not happen in April at all, citing three unresolved hurdles that still need to be worked out before the committee can vote.
If the bill doesn’t clear the Senate Banking Committee before May, midterm politics will take over the calendar and push the CLARITY Act into 2027 at the earliest. That would leave XRP without its biggest catalyst for over a year, and the institutions waiting on legal clarity before committing serious capital to XRP won’t have a reason to move until the law is done.
Why the CLARITY Act Might Not Pass in 2026
The CLARITY Act has already been pulled twice this year. The first markup was cancelled in January after Coinbase’s CEO withdrew support and over 100 amendments were filed. The second attempt stalled in March over a stablecoin yield dispute between banks and crypto firms.
Now the Senate is back from Easter recess, and Chairman Tim Scott went on Fox Business and said the markup still might not happen in April—because there are still three things that need to be worked out.
The first is the stablecoin rewards fight, which Scott said could take two more weeks to sort out. The second is the DeFi provision, where law enforcement groups want tighter rules on decentralised finance platforms. The third is getting every Republican senator aligned, which Scott said could take another couple of weeks on its own.
If each of those timelines is accurate, the earliest the committee could realistically vote is early May—and even then, the bill still needs a 60-vote Senate floor vote, then it has to match up with the Agriculture Committee version and the House version before reaching the President’s desk.
The Senate only has 18 working weeks left before the midterm recess on October 5, and each week of delay compresses that window further. Polymarket has already priced it in—odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have dropped from 82% in February to 60%.
What a 2027 Delay Means for the XRP Price
Right now, XRP’s commodity classification comes from a joint SEC and CFTC ruling issued on March 17. It sounds like a done deal, but it’s a regulatory opinion—not a law. A future SEC chair could reinterpret or reverse it without a single vote in Congress.
Banks and asset managers understand this, which is why most of them haven’t committed serious capital to XRP even with the commodity label in place. Without the CLARITY Act turning that classification into permanent federal law, XRP’s legal footing stays shaky.
Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity service, which uses XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border payments, won’t scale to major banks until those banks have statutory protection. Right now, they’re settling in fiat and RLUSD instead. Ripple President Monica Long has confirmed that the company has institutional partnerships behind NDAs that only go live once the bill passes—so a delay to 2027 would freeze that entire pipeline for over a year.
Without the bill, we think the XRP price will trade between $1.00 and $1.50 through the rest of the year, moving with whatever Bitcoin does rather than on anything specific to Ripple. At $1.45 today, XRP is already near the top of that range—with limited room to go higher and a lot of room to go lower if macro conditions get worse.
Should You Hold XRP Through a CLARITY Act Delay?
If you’re holding XRP for the next few months, a CLARITY Act delay to 2027 could leave you with nothing to push the price higher on its own. Although Bitcoin has rallied to $75,000, anything can still go wrong. And without the CLARITY Act, XRP moves with BTC and nothing else.
A Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institutional investors found that 25% plan to add XRP in 2026—but 65% of them said regulatory clarity is the one thing holding them back. It shows that until the law is done,XRP might not see institutional adoption at scale.
If you’re thinking longer term, Ripple as a company has never been stronger—Rakuten, Kyobo Life, Deutsche Bank, and a growing list of banks are building on XRP’s infrastructure right now. A delay could push new institutions further out. Between now and May, it all comes down to whether Chairman Tim Scott puts a markup date on the calendar. If he doesn’t, the delay to 2027 is the most likely outcome—and you should size your XRP position accordingly.
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