Can Disney Keep Treading Above $100 After Earnings Tomorrow?

Investors are watching Disney (NYSE:DIS | DIS Price Prediction) ahead of fiscal Q2 2026 results due before the bell tomorrow, May 6. Shares are barely holding $100 at $100.69, down 10.95% YTD. This is new CEO Josh D’Amaro’s first real test.

D’Amaro Inherits a Crowded To-Do List

Last quarter, Disney beat with adjusted EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $25.981 billion, up 5.23% YoY. Streaming carried the headline. SVOD operating income jumped 72% to $450 million with subscription fees up 13%, and Experiences delivered record quarterly revenue of $10.006 billion.

Entertainment segment operating income fell 35% on heavy programming and marketing costs, and operating cash flow plunged 77% to $735 million on accelerated tax payments tied to California wildfire disaster relief. Shares closed at $107.49 on report day, then drifted lower as the YouTube TV carriage suspension clipped roughly $110 million from Sports OI. D’Amaro now owns the decline of linear TV, soft international park attendance, and rising content acquisition costs for streaming.

Consensus and YoY Setup

Streaming Margins, Park Resilience, and a New CEO’s Tone

I’ll be watching three things. First, streaming. Management guided Q2 SVOD operating income to roughly $500 million, an increase of about $200 million YoY, on the way to a 10% full-year margin. After SVOD margin hit 8.4% last quarter, the trajectory looks credible. Rising content costs could pinch.

Second, Experiences. Domestic attendance grew 1% with per-capita spending up 4% in Q1. Q2 carries international visitation headwinds plus pre-launch costs for the Disney Adventure cruise and pre-opening costs for World of Frozen at Disneyland Paris. Management warned of only modest segment OI growth.

Third, Sports. ESPN advertising rose 10% in Q1, but management expects Sports OI down $100 million in Q2 on higher rights expenses, and the YouTube TV dispute is still a wildcard.

You should also watch cash. After the Q1 free cash flow figure of -$2.278 billion, investors want a snapback toward the $19 billion full-year operating cash flow guide. The Polymarket crowd is pricing a 93.1% probability that Disney clears the $1.49 EPS bar.

D’Amaro’s First Earnings Sets the Tone

The 50-day moving average sits at $100.90, essentially where shares trade right now. A miss, or wobbly guidance, likely cracks $100. A clean beat with a credible streaming margin update and a steady Experiences read could put the $128.25 analyst consensus target back in play. D’Amaro’s job tomorrow is straightforward: show that the FY26 double-digit EPS growth target and $7 billion buyback are intact.