The $1.45 resistance had rejected XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) four times since the war between the United States and Iran pushed its price below that level. That finally changed on May 10, when XRP cleared the resistance on a trading volume spike and held above it.
A technical analyst known as Bird (@Bird_XRPL) on X thinks the breakout could send XRP to the $2 to $4 price range, following the same pattern that took TON and ONDO to their breakout highs. Here’s our review to determine if the prediction holds up.
XRP Breaks Above $1.45 After Weeks of Compression
XRP has been compressing inside a symmetrical triangle since early February, when the price hit $1.60 and retraced. Each rally has set a lower high, and each pullback has set a higher low. That’s left a tight range traders have been watching for weeks, with the apex now closing in.
Of those four attempts, the biggest moves were in March and April. XRP spiked to $1.60 in March after the SEC and CFTC jointly classified it as a commodity, then to $1.51 in April on the biggest week of ETF inflows. However, both moves retraced after a few days. The reason was the same each time—the wall of break-even sellers at $1.45 absorbed every push above that level.
Then, on May 10, XRP’s trading volume jumped 222% from the prior session, and the buying came from larger players, not retail. The rally stalled near $1.50 as the bears stepped in, but XRP held above $1.45, which is the confirmation earlier fakeouts never had.
XRP is trading around $1.47 right now, up roughly 3% over the past week and holding above the $1.45 resistance. With the triangle apex about two weeks away, the current breakout has a tight window to either extend or fail—but one analyst thinks the rally is just getting started.
How TON and ONDO Broke Out — and Why Bird Says XRP Is Next
The analyst calling for $2 to $4 is Bird, an XRPL developer who built the meme coin DROP. On May 9, he posted on X that XRP was about to do what TON and ONDO had done after similar compression phases. “Both broke out hard,” he wrote. “XRP is next.”
Toncoin has done this twice in the past two years. In the first quarter of 2024, it rallied 350% as Telegram built TON support into its messaging app and on-chain trading exploded. Then, earlier this month, TON jumped another 110% in a single week after Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced he was taking over the network’s governance.
ONDO did the same thing in late 2024. After months of consolidation, the token hit an all-time high of $2.15 in December on news that World Liberty Financial—the Trump-family-backed crypto project—bought ONDO tokens. The rally came out of compression, but the chart didn’t drive it, which shows the catalyst did the heavy lifting.
XRP fits the same setup TON and ONDO had, but Bird’s call needs more than the pattern alone. To get the same scale of move, XRP needs its own catalyst—something to play the role Durov played for TON or World Liberty Financial played for ONDO. The CLARITY Act markup on May 14 is the key catalyst.
What XRP Needs to Hit $2 vs $4
The $2 to $4 range covers two different scenarios. The first comes from the chart pattern, while the second needs the right catalyst to extend the move.
Starting with the triangle, the pattern’s height points to targets between $1.82 and $2.15. The first target, $1.82, is just under XRP’s 200-day moving average at $1.88—a 24% move from where XRP is trading right now. The triangle could get XRP to roughly $2, which is the low end of Bird’s range.
The $4 forecast comes from Bird’s comparison to TON and ONDO. Both tokens broke out from compression and rallied past what their patterns alone projected, because catalysts amplified the move. That’s the difference: the triangle gets XRP moving, but the right catalyst is what would extend the move from $2 toward $4.
That’s where CLARITY comes in. If the bill clears the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, institutions could deploy billions in XRP ETF inflows. For scale, BlackRock’s IBIT pulled in $50 billion across 2024 and helped take Bitcoin from $40,000 to over $100,000. XRP would need flows on a similar scale to push past the triangle’s measured target and toward $4.
Are the $2-$4 Targets Realistic?
The $2 forecast is realistic based on the chart alone. However, the $4 price target needs more—specifically a CLARITY passage that translates into ETF buying at a scale XRP hasn’t seen yet. Cumulative XRP ETF inflows are at $1.32 billion right now. Standard Chartered’s post-CLARITY Act projection of $4 to $8 billion in inflows would be a three-to-six-fold acceleration from current levels, and that’s the demand the $4 price target requires.
Three things matter over the next two weeks: XRP’s daily close above $1.46 to confirm the breakout is holding, the CLARITY Act markup outcome, and the size of XRP ETF inflows in the weeks after. Together they’ll reveal which forecast could play out for XRP by the end of the year.
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