After hitting a record $3.65 in July 2025 on the back of a landmark legal victory and fresh ETF approvals, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has shed over 60% of its value and right now, the token trades at $1.38.
For long-term holders, the silence from the price chart is deafening, especially when the headlines keep delivering good news—billion-dollar institutional inflows, a $2.4 billion acquisition spree by Ripple, and real-world settlements executed on the XRP Ledger in under five seconds. So what exactly is going on and does any of it make XRP worth holding for the long term?
XRP’s Sharp 2026 Drawdown Overshadowed ETF Momentum And Institutional Growth
Three things happened to XRP’s price in the past twelve months and none of them were random. First, the market priced in Ripple’s SEC victory before it was even official. By the time the settlement was confirmed, there was nothing left to buy. The subsequent 50-plus percent decline from the post-lawsuit high is evidence that regulatory resolution and price performance are not the same thing.
Second, the stablecoin problem hit harder than most expected. XRP transaction volume has remained relatively static, suggesting businesses are not adopting XRP as a bridge currency, largely because it makes little sense to move money with a volatile asset when stablecoins are an option.
Third, the chart kept rejecting the same level. XRP has failed to hold above $1.50 four separate times since dropping below it earlier this year, with each rejection followed by a sharp pullback. By early May, a textbook double-top printed at $1.51 even as $142 million in fresh long positions piled into derivatives markets, pushing open interest from $798 million to $940 million.
Hidden bearish RSI divergence flashed during the same window, and long-term holder buying dropped 41% as the wallets that typically anchor rallies stepped back. Every signal pointing to a sustained breakout failed to confirm.
Even the most bullish analyst on Wall Street has had to revise its XRP price forecast. Standard Chartered, who originally projected XRP would hit $8 by the end of 2026, cut their target to $2.80 in February. The revision cited Hormuz shipping tensions feeding through to oil prices, delayed Fed rate cuts, and compressed risk appetite across crypto.
For a bank with one of the most optimistic XRP price targets in the institutional research space, the cut was a meaningful concession that the macro setup is no longer cooperating with the bullish projection.
Can Institutional Adoption Save XRP’s Long-Term Outlook After A 60% Drawdown?
The XRP price drop has been sharp, but the token’s underlying infrastructure tells a different tale. Daily transactions on the XRP Ledger hit 3 million on March 15, 2026—a threefold increase from mid-2025 averages—driven by growth in automated market maker pools, tokenized assets, and RLUSD settlement flows. Real-world asset tokenization on the XRPL has grown to over $474 million in total value, with represented value approaching $1.5 billion.
Moreover, more institutional money is showing up. JPMorgan has forecast that XRP ETFs may attract between $4 billion and $8.4 billion in their first year of inflows. CME Group also launched regulated XRP futures contracts in May 2025, opening the door to a different class of crypto users entirely.
Ripple still ranks as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Whether or not the price reflects it, the institutional infrastructure around XRP in 2026 looks nothing like what existed eighteen months ago. Some analysts are even projecting a 10x move in the near term, arguing the token remains significantly undervalued relative to the infrastructure being built around it.
What XRP Actually Does And Why It Matters For Investors
XRP was designed with a single purpose: to make cross-border payments fast, cheap, and reliable for financial institutions. On the XRP Ledger, a transaction settles in 3 to 5 seconds for less than a cent. The traditional banking system, through SWIFT, takes anywhere from hours to days and charges up to $50 for the same transfer.
XRP has a fixed supply of 100 billion tokens, all created at launch. Ripple Labs controls roughly 41.6 billion of those tokens and releases them gradually. That level of control is centralized by crypto standards, and it draws legitimate criticism. But it also means Ripple can offer something decentralized networks struggle to: predictable liquidity for large institutional clients.
Energy consumption is another differentiator. XRP doesn’t rely on mining, so it uses significantly less power compared to most altcoins—an increasingly important factor for banks and financial institutions that answer to ESG mandates.
The Case For Buying XRP Right Now
The legal cloud that hung over XRP for nearly four years is gone. A federal judge ruled in 2023 that selling XRP to retail investors on exchanges is not a securities transaction, and the SEC formally dropped its appeal in 2024. That single development unlocked institutional participation that was simply off the table before.
The real-world numbers back the thesis. Ripple’s payment network now touches banks in Brazil, India, the Philippines, and the Middle East. In May 2026, JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ondo Finance settled a cross-border tokenized Treasury transaction on the XRP Ledger in real time.
Moreso, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is targeting 14% of SWIFT’s transaction volume by 2030, roughly $21 trillion annually. Even a fraction of that changes XRP’s valuation story entirely. It all points to XRP having a fundamental use case than most cryptocurrencies, but the only thing is that the price has yet to catch up. When the price eventually catch up, the token could go on an explosive run.
The Risks Every XRP Investor Should Know
XRP’s competition isn’t standing still. SWIFT is upgrading, JPMorgan has its own payment token, and Visa runs its own institutional transfer network. And stablecoins like USDC and USDT can move money across borders without exposing the sender to any price volatility, something XRP cannot currently claim.
Ripple’s control over 41.6 billion tokens is another concern that doesn’t go away with good news cycles. Monthly token releases give the company direct influence over supply, which serious institutional investors notice.
The sharpest risk, though, is structural: banks can plug into RippleNet and enjoy faster, cheaper settlements while settling entirely in fiat without touching XRP once. Platform growth and token demand are not the same thing, and confusing the two is how most XRP investors end up disappointed.
Is XRP Still Built For The Future Of Global Payments, Or Has The Market Moved On?
Forecasts for XRP remain deeply divided, showing how uncertain the asset’s long-term outlook still is despite Ripple’s continued push into global payments.
Some analysts expect XRP to remain under pressure through 2026, with projections between $0.75 and $1.75 as competition and slower-than-expected adoption weigh on sentiment. On the opposite side, bullish estimates linked to spot ETF demand, expanding institutional use, and improving regulatory clarity place XRP between $3 and $5 over the same period.
A smaller group of ultra-bullish analysts believe XRP could eventually climb far higher if Ripple succeeds in capturing a meaningful share of the international payments market currently dominated by SWIFT. Those projections, which stretch into double- or even triple-digit territory, depend on rapid adoption by banks and payment firms across multiple regions.
The broader takeaway for investors is that XRP still trades as a high-risk asset with a future tied heavily to execution. Ripple’s payment network continues to grow, but the market now expects measurable transaction volume and sustained institutional demand instead of narrative-driven rallies alone.
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