After the sudden May surge in shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) alongside the broader basket of semiconductor stocks, it feels like it’s a given that Jensen Huang’s GPU giant will be the first to hit that $6 trillion valuation mark for the first time.
Of course, the semiconductors have been a wild ride, and with Nvidia now more than halfway to a correction, perhaps the road to a $6 trillion market cap won’t be all that smooth, even as excitement in AI builds. Of course, the ultimate test will come when Nvidia pulls the curtain on its earnings in mid-week. At this juncture, many pundits think the firm will impress, but that the reaction will be tough to gauge.
In short, things could go either way, and while a knockout quarter could propel Nvidia right above $6 trillion in as little as a single day, I certainly think that the expectations bar has become quite high. After a 35% run since the lows of March, Nvidia went from being a dirt-cheap stock to one that’s perhaps just mildly cheap. Any way you look at it, though, the path to $6 trillion might soon be a close race.
Apple has the right drivers in place to fuel such a run
It seems like a bit of a long shot to think that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which currently is the world’s third-largest company, would pull ahead of the likes of Nvidia to break the $6 trillion mark. That said, Apple stock has really been heating up, even as CEO Tim Cook looks to depart in September, with John Ternus set to step in. Whether Apple stock’s latest surge is related to confidence in Ternus or the AI innovation to come remains the $6 trillion question.
In my view, I think the previous quarterly earnings result justified the sustained run in the stock. It took a bit of time to digest, but eventually, investors and analysts both came to terms with just how good the numbers were for the first quarter. But will this impressive march higher take Apple all the way to $6 trillion and faster than the likes of the two firms ahead of it in the great Mag Seven race?
WWDC 2026 might be that big, timely catalyst
It’s tough to tell, but I think WWDC 2026, which will be kicking off in early June, could be that one catalyst that might just excite as investors look for more on where Apple is heading with its AI strategy and whether 2026 is the year when Apple catches up in the race. Look for the more personalized Siri 2.0 to be the main attraction.
For the many investors who’ve sold off other titans in tech with their massive CapEx budgets for 2026 (it’s in the hundreds of billions), Apple stands out as a far better AI ROI kind of bet.
When you’re spending relatively little, the ROI bar becomes that much easier to pass. And with a potential iPhone supercycle on the way, I think Apple might just be the underdog that takes the $6 trillion market cap crown this year. Of course, I’d expect Nvidia and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) to hit the mark shortly after.
Apple’s edge AI opportunity might still be underestimated
When it comes to Apple, it’s about far more than just a new (foldable) form factor on its coming iPhone. In my view, it’s all about whether Apple can convince people to upgrade for the power of having more capable AI compute in one’s pocket.
In other words, will the Neural Engine in the latest A-series chip go from a nice-to-have feature working in the background to something that’s a major selling point? Once we get a better gauge of the new Siri and other AI features to come, I do think the opportunity will become more apparent to investors.
Add the potential to monetize an AI service later, and I think Apple might be the AI monetizer doing more while spending less. In a market that’s a bit nervous regarding massive CapEx bills, I do view Apple as having what it takes to stay in the market’s good books, even as the valuation gets up there.
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