A few tough things could happen to SpaceX shares when the company goes public. The stock could jump after the IPO goes live. People could then dump shares to make immediate profits.
SpaceX could look like Facebook did in 2012. It went public at $38 on May 8 and moved up after that first day. Later in the year, Barron’s hammered the Facebook valuation. Skeptical investors sold it down to $20.
People might worry that 60% of SpaceX’s revenue comes from the Starlink super-internet product. It was the only profitable unit last year. The internet, via its satellite network, reaches all seven continents and 160 countries.
SpaceX’s AI operations have lost billions of dollars. It is up against the wildly successful products from Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. There is no reason to think it will catch up. However, CEO and controlling shareholder Elon Musk shows no sign of throttling back his AI efforts.
People could take the money they set aside for SpaceX and play it safe. If a recession is coming, one company has products that are recession-proof. It has raised its dividend for 55 consecutive years. Its rock-solid dividend yields just shy of 6%. Where else can people get that kind of return? Altria (NYSE: MO | MO Price Prediction).
By the way, Altria’s stock is up 28% this year, again, 9% for the S&P. Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) is up 17%. Obviously, long-term Nvidia does better. But many investors today are traders. Multiyear holdings are not in their playbook.
Altria’s financials are unspectacular. Its revenue rose 3.2% in the first quarter to $5.4 billion. EPS rose 100% to $1.30. And, it had more good news. “We reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5.56 to $5.72, representing a growth rate of 2.5% to 5.5% from a base of $5.42 in 2025.”
Altria’s revenue is driven by Marlboro, the most famous cigarette brand in the world. Because cigarettes are dangerous, Marlboro has been kicked off most brand valuation lists. Nevertheless, some brand experts value it at $32 billion because it holds about 40% of the global cigarette market.
About 20% of the world’s adults smoke, which is 1.5 billion. (Altria does not sell cigarettes in all these markets. But, the figure is valuable directionally.)
Of course, many people avoid Altria because of the danger of cigarettes. There is a theory that this is why the dividend is so high. Or, it is because the company throws off so much cash.
Investors can gamble that the SpaceX stock will soar and stay at high levels. Or they can go the much safer route and buy 55 years of dividend increases.
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