Rocket Lab Delivered 835% Returns in Five Years, Is It Still A Buy?

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) has just under five years of public trading history. Peter Beck’s small-launch pioneer went public via SPAC merger in August 2021, well short of a full decade. That five-year window happens to capture one of the more dramatic transformations in the aerospace sector.

When Rocket Lab debuted, it was a one-rocket story. The Electron small-lift vehicle was reliable but tiny, and the company was burning cash to build a bigger ride called Neutron. Five years later, the pitch is different. Rocket Lab now describes itself as an end-to-end space company spanning launch, satellite buses, and payloads, with a $2.20 billion backlog and 70+ contracted missions. The defense pivot has been the catalyst, headlined by an $816 million Space Development Agency award for 18 Tracking Layer satellites and a slot on the Golden Dome Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon.

Execution has matched the narrative. Electron logged 21 successful missions in 2025 at a 100% success rate, and acquisitions of Mynaric, Motiv, and Geost expanded the stack. Neutron’s first flight slipped to Q4 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure, but the contract pipeline kept compounding anyway.

A $1,000 Stake Became Nearly $10,000

1-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $3,651
• Total Return: 265.15%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,229 (22.91%)

5-Year Return (Since IPO, August 2021)

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $9,354
• Total Return: 835.44%
• Annualized Return: ~59%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,667 (66.7%)

Holding through that ride was not for the squeamish. Shares spent much of 2022 and 2023 underwater, and even the last 12 months produced a 52-week range of $25.24 to $151. The recent gains track tightly with the defense contract wins, 63.5% Q1 2026 revenue growth, and the SpaceX IPO filing pulling the entire sector higher.

I’d Buy It Here, But Not With Conviction

I’d put $1,000 into Rocket Lab today if I believed Neutron debuts on time, the defense backlog converts cleanly, and the market keeps paying a price-to-sales ratio above 100x for that growth profile. The bull case is real: there is no other publicly tradable pure-play launch company with this customer list.

But I’d avoid it if I needed the position to behave well in a drawdown. Rocket Lab still posts GAAP net losses and free cash flow of negative $321.8 million in FY2025, and the beta of 2.499 means any Neutron slip or SpaceX-related sector wobble hurts fast. Personally, I lean buyer at this level, but only as a small, high-volatility sleeve. Anyone sizing it like a core holding is underestimating how violent the next 30% move could be in either direction.

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