NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) sits at the center of what CEO Jensen Huang calls “the buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”
Data Center revenue hit $75.25 billion in Q1 FY27, up 92% year over year. Yet shares are up just 13.11% year to date and trading at $210.69. Can NVIDIA reach $400 per share by 2029? The path exists, but it requires a specific sequence of events.
What’s Holding NVIDIA Back Right Now
Fundamentals are stellar. Shares are down 4.39% over the last month and sit 27% below the 52-week high of $236.26. Two factors weigh on sentiment. First, no H20 compute products shipped to China this quarter versus $4.6 billion in the year-ago quarter, and forward guidance assumes zero China Data Center compute revenue.
Second, with a beta of 2.2, every macro wobble hits NVIDIA harder than the market. Recent insider selling activity across 8 transactions and $119 billion in supply-related commitments have pressured sentiment. Investors are pricing in execution risk the income statement does not yet show.
Wall Street Sees 42% Upside. Our Model Differs
Consensus price target is $298.93, built on 10 Strong Buy, 48 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. That works out to 95% bullish. Our base case is more conservative at $259.98 over the next twelve months, implying 23.39% upside with 90% confidence.
The bull scenario stretches to $301.08, the bear to $220.28. The Street is anchored on near-term P/E, while our longer horizon stretches further. Stretch the timeline to 2029 and our five-year bull case lands at $485.63. That suggests $400 is achievable.
The Path to $400 Per Share
Reaching $400 from today’s price of $210.69 requires a gain of 89.9%. With forward EPS of $8.01, a price of $400 implies a forward P/E of 50x. Our base case of $259.98 already implies 36x means the bold target requires roughly 14x additional multiple expansion. That is steep but not absurd for a company compounding earnings this fast.
Huang stated “Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today, delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token, and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further.”
Partnerships with OpenAI (10 GW), Anthropic (1 GW), and Meta for millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs lock in multi-year demand. If FY27 EPS clears $10 and the multiple holds at 40x, the math works. The primary risk is an AI capex pause from hyperscalers, which would compress both EPS growth and the multiple simultaneously.
Where NVIDIA Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power
NVIDIA currently trades at a forward P/E of 26x against forward EPS of $8.01. For a company that grew FY26 revenue 65% to $215.94 billion and net income 65% to $120.07 billion, that multiple looks reasonable.
Shares sit between the 52-week low of $141.84 and the high of $236.26. The long-term return is telling: NVIDIA has delivered a 10-year return of 17,968.73%. That is the historical context for why a 50x multiple on rising earnings is achievable.
Is $400 Realistic?
Hitting $400 by 2029 requires that 89.9% gain. EPS needs to roughly double from current forward levels and the multiple needs to hold near 40x to 50x.
Three things must go right: Blackwell and Vera Rubin sustain pricing power, hyperscaler capex stays elevated through 2028, and China headwinds do not worsen. A serious AI capex retrenchment would derail it. We’ve outlined the blueprint for how NVIDIA could reach $400 in 2029.
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