Price Prediction: Carnival Has 31% Upside as Q2 Earnings Beat Masks Opportunity

By Vandita Jadeja Published Jun 25, 9:32AM EDT

Quick Read

CCL delivered its twelfth consecutive quarter of record net yields yet trades at $28.72, offering 31% upside to our $37.74 BUY target.
A record $9.0B deposit book and 2026 bookings 93% full signal durable demand even as fuel costs and FX headwinds weighed on Q3 guidance.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Carnival didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Price Prediction: Carnival Has 31% Upside as Q2 Earnings Beat Masks Opportunity — © dani3315 / iStock

Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL | CCL Price Prediction) just delivered its twelfth consecutive quarter of record net yields, yet the stock sold off after Q2 results landed. That dislocation is the setup for our call.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Carnival is $37.74 over the next 12 months, implying 31.41% upside from a current price of $28.72. The recommendation is buy, with confidence at 90%, the high end of our framework.

An infographic titled 'Carnival Corporation (CCL) 12-Month Price Prediction'. The top section shows a current price of $28.72 leading to a target price of $37.74, indicating a +31.41% upside, with a 'BUY' recommendation and a confidence level of 90% (High). Below, there are two sections: 'HOW WE GOT THERE (METHODOLOGY)' lists Trailing P/E-Based Price at $28.72, Forward P/E-Based Price at $35.12, Analyst Consensus (Weight 0.3) at $35.05, and Weighted Base Price at $33.82. Adjacent to this, 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS (247FACTOR: 1.116x)' shows a bar chart with values +0.048 for Analyst Consensus (80% Bullish), +0.03 for Earnings Growth (35.8% YoY), -0.027 for Volatility Adjustment (Beta 2.33), and +0.015 for Price Position (-4% from High), leading to a Final Target of $37.74. The lower half of the infographic has 'WHAT COULD GO RIGHT (BULL CASE)' with points like Record $9.0B Customer Deposits, 2026 Booked 93% at Higher Prices, and PROPEL Targets, resulting in a Bull Case Target of $42.91 (+49.41% Upside). Next to it, 'WHAT COULD GO WRONG (BEAR CASE)' lists $24.9B Total Debt Load, Nearly 30% Higher Fuel Costs, and Mediterranean Geopolitical Headwinds, with a Bear Case Target of $32.72 (+13.92% Upside). The bottom section, 'THE BOTTOM LINE', reiterates 'BUY $37.74 (+31.41% UPSIDE)' and states the thesis: Strong Demand & 12x Forward Earnings Outweigh Near-Term Headwinds.

Metric	Value
Current Price	$28.72
24/7 Wall St. Price Target	$37.74
Upside	31.41%
Recommendation	BUY
Confidence Level	90%

A Record Quarter, Punished by a Soft Guide

CCL is up 20.75% over the past year but down 4.95% year to date, and shares fell 4.87% on Q2 results. Carnival posted adjusted EPS of $0.41 against $0.35 a year ago and revenue of $6.663B, beating its own March guidance by $100M. Customer deposits hit a record $9B, and 2026 is 93% booked.

The sell-off traced to a Q3 outlook that came in below estimates on roughly 30% higher fuel prices and a $73M currency headwind. CEO Josh Weinstein told investors that “recent booking trends already suggest that we are beginning to see a reversal of these headwinds.”

Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead

The bull case rests on demand that refuses to crack. Weinstein flagged that “booking volumes and prices” for 2027 sailings are running ahead of last year. The PROPEL plan targets >16% ROIC, >50% adjusted EPS growth from 2025 by 2029, and roughly $14B in shareholder distributions.

A $2.5B buyback is underway, and Fitch awarded investment grade. Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows recreation spending at a 16-month high of $864.2B. Freedom Broker carries a $35 target on a “rare” mix of record demand and disciplined supply. A bull case run takes shares to $42.91, a 49.41% return.

The Risks Worth Watching

Bears point to $24.9B in total debt, unhedged fuel exposure, and Mediterranean booking softness from Middle East tensions. Truist recently trimmed its price objective, and Q2 gross profit fell 29.81% YoY.

Bulls would counter that GAAP weakness reflects the fuel spike and FX, while adjusted net income still rose 20% and net debt to EBITDA improved to 3.4x. If macro softens, our bear case lands at $32.72, still 13.92% above today.

Carnival Price Prediction 2026 to 2030

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $37.74 reflects a buy rating at 90% confidence. The deciding factor is the $9B deposit book paired with 12x forward earnings. The thesis strengthens if fuel prices stabilize and 2027 booking momentum persists. It weakens if the Mediterranean disruption deepens and debt service crowds out buybacks.

Looking further out, here is where our model projects CCL could trade if base case growth holds.

Year	24/7 Wall St. Price Target
2026	$37.74
2027	$44.11
2028	$51.57
2029	$60.27
2030	$70.45

These projections assume Carnival continues hitting PROPEL targets. Material upside or downside could come from oil price shocks, recession risk, or accelerated deleveraging.

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About the Author Vandita Jadeja →

Vandita Jadeja is a financial copywriter who loves to read and write about stocks. She believes in buying and holding for long term gains. Her knowledge of words and numbers helps her write clear stock analysis. She has contributed to several publications, including the Joy Wallet, Benzinga, The Motley Fool and InvestorPlace.