McDonald’s Looks Undervalued Despite Stock Pressure This Year

Let me cut to the chase. McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) just posted a clean Q1 2026 beat, but the stock is trading near its 52-week low and roughly 1% below its 52-week high only because of how this past year played out. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for McDonald’s is $329.64 over the next 12 months, implying 16.19% upside from $283.70. The recommendation is buy, with a confidence score of 90%, which we read as high.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Sloppy Year for the Stock, a Strong Quarter for the Business

McDonald’s stock has been under pressure. Shares are down 3.37% over the past week, 6.94% over the past month, and 8.75% over the past year, even as the 10-year return sits at 176.13%.

The disconnect is what makes this interesting. Q1 2026 EPS came in at $2.83 against a $2.74 estimate, a 3.11% beat, and revenue of $6.52 billion grew 9.44% year over year. Global comps swung to 3.8% from -1.0% a year earlier, and U.S. comps printed 3.9% on positive check growth. CEO Chris Kempczinski put it bluntly: “McDonald’s delivered this quarter. Our 6% global Systemwide sales growth shows how we executed with discipline.”

The Case for $352 and Higher

Bulls have a real argument. The loyalty platform crossed $9 billion in Q1 systemwide sales across 70 markets, with trailing 12-month loyalty sales above $38 billion. International Operated Markets revenue grew 14%, helped by a $313 million FX tailwind, and management is guiding to roughly 2,600 new openings and 2,100 net additions in 2026. Of 36 covering analysts, 19 rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy with a consensus target of $344.55. Our bull-case scenario puts MCD at $352.97, a 24.41% total return.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case starts with leverage. Net debt to EBITDA of 3.71 and a $1.79B shareholders’ equity deficit reflect aggressive debt-funded buybacks, and management is guiding interest expense up 4-6% in 2026. Restructuring charges from Accelerating the Organization run through 2027, and the effective tax rate stepped up to 22% from 19.8%.

Bulls would argue the negative book value reflects years of shareholder-friendly capital return rather than operating distress, and operating margin still sits at 46.10%. Our bear case lands at $305.98, still a 7.85% total return.

The Bottom Line

The price target is $329.64, the recommendation is buy, and confidence is high at 90%. The factor that tips the scale is the gap between fundamentals (comps reaccelerating, loyalty scaling, margins intact) and a stock that has lagged the tape. The thesis strengthens if comps stay above 3% globally and loyalty sales keep compounding. The thesis weakens if U.S. company-owned margins crack under inflation or if the Accelerating the Organization restructuring drags into a heavier 2027 charge cycle than guided.

McDonald’s Price Prediction 2026-2030

Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects McDonald’s could trade in the coming years, assuming current growth trajectories hold.

These projections assume McDonald’s continues executing on Accelerating the Arches. Significant upside or downside could come from loyalty monetization or a sustained traffic downturn in core U.S. stores.