Coinbase Strategist: Bitcoin Has Survived “6 of These Cycles” in 15 Years and “Over 40 Countries” Hold Bitcoin

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) Head of Institutional Strategy John D’Agostino used a recent CNBC Squawk Box appearance to push back on the wave of skepticism that has followed a brutal stretch for crypto prices. His core argument is that Bitcoin has already survived six major boom-and-bust cycles, making today’s downturn look more like history repeating than a fundamentally new problem.

Why D’Agostino Thinks This Cycle Is Different From the Headlines

According to D’Agostino, over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has gone through roughly six major cycles, and in each one the asset has carved out a new higher low before eventually reaching a new higher high once “retail panic” subsides. He told viewers that skeptics are “recycling the same arguments” they have made for years, and that Bitcoin currently trades at roughly 2.5 times the level where bears declared victory in the previous cycle.

His message to investors who bought near recent peaks was patience, on the view that history shows panic-sellers at cyclical lows have tended to lose out. His view is that the current selloff resembles previous Bitcoin cycles that eventually gave way to new highs.

Why He Compares Bitcoin to Gold, Rather Than Cash-Flowing Assets

D’Agostino argued that bitcoin meets the classic characteristics of money, listing it as scarce, durable, portable, verifiable, and accepted. He compared it to gold as a store of value that defies traditional discounted cash flow valuation, a key reason, in his view, that conventional equity-style price targets miss the point. D’Agostino’s framework differs from the way investors typically value stocks, as he views Bitcoin instead as a store of value.

Signs Bitcoin Is Going Mainstream

D’Agostino pointed to several examples of Bitcoin’s growing adoption:

• Coinbase recently facilitated the first stablecoin-based payment for independent journalists, condensing settlement from 90 days to 1 day.
• He claimed over 40 countries have committed to buying Bitcoin “in some fashion” for their national balance sheets.
• He said the “virality of that compute network” makes Bitcoin difficult to unwind in the short term.

The Coinbase Connection

D’Agostino did not make a specific call on Coinbase shares. The company is, however, the most direct US-listed proxy for crypto activity. Coinbase carries a market cap of roughly $32.2B and reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.41B, down 30.5% year over year, with a GAAP loss of $1.49 per share driven largely by $482.4M in losses on crypto held for investment. Subscription and services revenue reached $583.5M, or 44% of net revenue, which acts as a buffer when trading slows.

Coinbase also disclosed a 14% headcount reduction targeting roughly $500M in annualized savings, held $10.2B in cash, and posted a 13th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA at $303.3M. CEO Brian Armstrong framed the backdrop bluntly: “Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good, or as bad as it seems.”

What to Watch

D’Agostino’s thesis ultimately comes down to whether Bitcoin will continue to follow the long-term pattern he describes. Investors will be watching for continued stablecoin adoption, sovereign and institutional demand, and Coinbase’s growing subscription business, all of which could indicate the crypto ecosystem is maturing beyond its traditional boom-and-bust cycles.

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