Sanjay Mehrotra sat with Jim Cramer on June 30, 2026 and said the quiet part out loud about the AI memory boom. “Even our customers could not forecast this demand.” Coming from the CEO whose company sells the memory going into every AI accelerator, that is quite the admission. And it explains why Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is now writing checks on a scale the semiconductor industry rarely sees.
The 2023 bet that funded everything after
Rewind three years. Memory was in a downcycle that ends careers. Micron’s fiscal 2023 revenue collapsed to $15.54 billion with a $5.83 billion net loss and a negative gross margin. Mehrotra’s description to Cramer was blunt: “In 23, our prices came down to one third of what they were… Yet Micron had the vision of investing for the future.” The company sunk roughly $10 billion in 2023 into technology and supply while competitors slashed capex.
That contrarian move now looks like the setup for one of the more violent operating leverage stories in tech. Q3 FY2026 revenue hit $41.46 billion, and operating margin ran at 80.4% for the quarter. The stock is up 754% over the past year and 227% year to date, though shares gave back 9.67% on July 1 as investors caught their breath.
Why $200 billion, and why now
The centerpiece of the Cramer conversation was the capital plan. “We are investing $200 billion of investments right here in the U.S… These investments are very much geared toward trying to bring on supply,” Mehrotra said. That figure covers the Boise, Idaho fabs and the New York site in Clay, along with R&D, spread over roughly two decades.
The near-term math is already accelerating. On the fiscal Q2 call, CFO Mark Murphy said “We expect fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000” and flagged that construction-related capex would increase by more than $10 billion year over year in fiscal 2027.
Greenfield fabs take years to come online, which is the entire reason the supply gap looks structural rather than cyclical. Mehrotra told analysts “In the medium term, we are only able to meet about 50% to two-thirds of our demand from several key customers” and that “the gap between the demand and supply for all of DRAM, including HBM, is really the highest that we have ever seen.”
You can see why customers wanted to lock in supply. Micron responded with what it calls Strategic Customer Agreements, multi-year contracts with real commitments. Mehrotra told investors “We are excited to have signed our first five-year SCA” and that discussions were ongoing with multiple customers across data center, automotive, and consumer markets.
What Q4 guidance says about the trajectory
Management guided fiscal Q4 to revenue of $50.0 billion give or take $1 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $31 give or take $1, and GAAP gross margin around 86%. For context, that single quarter would exceed Micron’s entire annual revenue for every fiscal year through FY2024. HBM4 is already in high-volume shipments to the lead AI accelerator customer, with HBM4E on the 1-gamma DRAM node targeting calendar 2027 volume production.
The forward P/E of 7x reflects the market’s suspicion that memory is still memory, and that the cycle will turn. Mehrotra’s counter, delivered to Cramer, was that 40% of Micron’s revenue comes from consumer, automotive and industrial markets, and that AI is in very early innings. Analyst consensus sits at a $1,454.12 price target with 30 Buy ratings and 9 Strong Buys. Full detail on the quarter sits in Micron’s Q3 FY2026 press release exhibit filed with the SEC.
The takeaway for investors
Conviction spending during a downturn is a strategy that either bankrupts you or makes you the default supplier when the market turns. Micron picked the second door in 2023, and the AI buildout arrived faster than anyone, apparently including the buyers themselves, expected. The $200 billion commitment is the bill for staying ahead of what comes next.
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