Ford Vs. Tesla: 2 American Icons With Upside, Which to Buy

By Alex Sirois Published Jul 7, 1:53PM EDT

Quick Read

Ford trades at a forward P/E of 8 with a 4.4% yield, while Tesla commands 200x earnings backed by surging 21% automotive margins.
Thirteen Ford directors bought shares at $13.22 in May, but Tesla's FSD subscriptions surged 51% to 1.28 million, signaling a software mix shift.
Tesla's robotaxi launches in Dallas and Houston are the real test, with Polymarket giving only 12% odds to an Optimus release by year-end.
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Ford Vs. Tesla: 2 American Icons With Upside, Which to Buy — © gerenme / E+ via Getty Images

Ford (NYSE:F | F Price Prediction) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) just closed the books on Q1 2026. Ford leaned on trucks, fleet software, and a raised outlook. Tesla leaned on margin recovery, FSD subscriptions, and a roadmap stuffed with robots. Both grew revenue. Only one is priced like a growth story.

Trucks Carry Ford. Margins Carry Tesla.

Ford posted $43.25 billion in revenue, EPS of $0.66, and adjusted EBIT of $3.49 billion. Ford Blue drove the quarter with $23.9 billion in revenue (up 14%) as F-Series, Bronco, and Expedition kept humming, with off-road trims making up roughly a quarter of U.S. sales. Ford Pro delivered an 11.4% margin and grew paid software subscriptions 30% year over year to 879,000. Model e still bled $777 million.

Tesla posted revenue of $22.39 billion (up 15.78%), non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, and automotive gross margin of 21.1% from 16.2%. FSD subscriptions climbed to 1.28 million, up 51%. Services revenue jumped 42%. Energy storage dropped 12%.

Deep Value Truck Maker vs. AI Fleet Operator

Lens	Ford	Tesla
Forward P/E	8	200
Market Cap	$53.2B	$1.48T
Core Bet	F-Series cash funding Model e	FSD licensing, robotics, compute
Dividend Yield	4.4%	None

Jim Farley framed the quarter as validation: “Our strong first-quarter results and raised full-year guidance reflect the momentum of the Ford+ plan.” Ford lifted 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5B to $10.5B. A $1.30 billion IEEPA tariff benefit flattered the earnings report, and commodity headwinds run near $2 billion. Tesla is spending $1.95 billion on R&D and sitting on $44.7 billion in cash, funding Cybercab, Semi, Megapack 3, and Optimus lines rated for 1 million robots per year at Fremont.

The Next Test Is Whether AI Revenue Scales

Watch two things. For Ford, whether the Universal EV platform can narrow Model e’s $4.0B to $4.5B projected 2026 loss without gutting Blue’s cash generation. For Tesla, whether robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston convert into real revenue. Polymarket traders assign only 12% odds to an Optimus release by year-end and 7.5% to Robovan orders opening before 2027. That is significant runway priced into a 357 trailing multiple.

Why I Lean Toward Tesla, With One Caveat

Ford at a forward multiple of 8 and a 4.4% yield is tempting, especially after 13 directors bought stock at $13.22 on May 21. If you want income and a turnaround narrative, Ford fits.

But structure matters. Tesla’s 21.1% automotive gross margin and scaling FSD base signal a software mix shift, while Ford funnels combustion profits into an EV unit losing billions. Tesla is the better long-term compounder. I would trim conviction if FSD monetization stalls or if one-time warranty and tariff gains reverse next quarter. Both can work. Tesla’s ceiling is higher.

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About the Author Alex Sirois →

Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.

Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.

At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.