Zillow (NASDAQ: ZG | ZG Price Prediction) posted $46 million in net income last quarter while Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) lost $173 million. Zillow runs a digital tollbooth on home search traffic. Opendoor buys houses with cash, holds them, and hopes to resell fast.
Ad Dollars Flow In. Inventory Sits on the Books.
Zillow’s $708 million in Q1 revenue grew 18.4% year over year, powered by three engines that never touch a deed. Rentals climbed 42% as multifamily listings scaled to 76,000 properties. Mortgage revenue jumped 56%, with purchase loan originations up 96% to $1.5 billion. CEO Jeremy Wacksman told investors the platform is “embedding AI throughout the real estate experience in ways that make Zillow increasingly indispensable.” Believable, given 220 million monthly unique users keep showing up.
Opendoor’s story hinges on operations. Revenue fell 38% to $720 million as homes sold dropped to 1,921 units. Yet new CEO Kaz Nejatian argues the machine is finally tuned: aged inventory over 120 days collapsed from 51% to 10%, and acquisition contracts topped 5,000, the highest since 2022. Gross margin nudged up to 10.0%. Progress, but the operating cash burn hit negative $246 million.
A Tollbooth Versus a Warehouse
| Lens | Zillow | Opendoor |
| Core Bet | SaaS agent tools, rentals, mortgage leads | Buying and reselling homes for cash |
| Balance Sheet Exposure | Minimal; ad marketplace | Heavy inventory plus $193M current convertibles |
| Q1 Profitability | $182M adjusted EBITDA | $49M adjusted net loss |
Zillow’s 73.3% gross margin lets management repurchase stock aggressively: 13.5 million shares bought for $626 million in the quarter. Opendoor, meanwhile, took a $105 million RSU charge tied to Nejatian’s arrival. Different worlds.
What Decides the Second Half
Housing itself remains soft. Existing home sales sit at 4.17 million annualized, and housing starts just fell 15.4% month over month. I will be watching whether Zillow’s Enhanced Markets, now 49% of connections, keep pushing agent monetization higher. For Opendoor, the tell is whether Q2 hits adjusted EBITDA breakeven and whether the 5% to 7% contribution margin range holds when cohorts mature.
Why I Lean Toward Zillow, With Eyes Open
Personally, I favor Zillow here. A capital-light platform compounding mid-teens revenue growth with real cash generation is easier to underwrite than a house-flipper still burning cash. The stock is down 54.2% over the past year, which stings, yet the FTC trial and legal headwinds feel priced in at a 14 forward P/E. Opendoor is a genuine turnaround story, and its 795.68% one-year rally shows what happens when a busted stock finds a pulse. But I want more quarters of proof before betting on the warehouse over the tollbooth. If you like variance and believe Nejatian’s cohort math, Opendoor fits. If you prefer durable margins, Zillow is the cleaner read.
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