Fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the US Treasury Department to revoke a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales, and WTI crude jumped more than 5% on the news. Don Striven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, reframed this on Bloomberg Radio around three calls that extend well past a single price spike.
The ‘Staggering’ China Number
Striven’s anchor point: China’s crude import demand is down a staggering 5 million barrels per day year over year, a 50% drop. Oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to roughly 75% of normal (including pipelines), but demand is not recovering at the same pace. Goldman expects about 90% of that demand weakness to unwind in coming quarters, but the remaining 10% may be permanent.
“I think the largest oil supply shock ever, the Hormuz shock, will validate the Chinese strategy to diversify into other energy sources and to continue to stockpile,” Striven said. Even if Hormuz fully reopens, China may structurally reduce dependence on imported crude.
Why the Recovery May Disappoint
Striven warned that “Markets had priced in perhaps with excessive confidence the recovery in supply and perhaps extrapolated to the base case of surplus in 2027. But it’s still a highly uncertain environment.” Iran sanctions, Strait management, and regional investment remain unresolved. Goldman separately warned Hormuz tanker traffic may recover only to ~70% of pre-war levels as producers permanently reroute via pipelines. JPMorgan commodities head Natasha Kaneva added: “The barrels now exiting Hormuz increasingly have nowhere to go except China. But China is not buying.”
Current pricing reflects that ambiguity. WTI closed at $71.87/barrel on June 29, 2026, and Brent at $71.59, both well off April’s spike above $138.
EV Acceleration Is the Structural Threat
EV share of global car sales has risen ~4 percentage points since the start of the Iran war. Goldman’s June 21 note pegged global EV penetration at 26.1% of new passenger car sales in May 2026, its second-highest level ever, with China accounting for more than 60% of the increase and Chinese EV adoption up 11.4 percentage points since February. Chinese EV heavy truck sales grew 45% year over year in Q1 2026, and CATL predicted half of China’s heavy truck sales could be electric by 2028. Goldman’s “Persistent Acceleration” scenario has current-pace EV adoption cutting global oil demand by 0.32 million bpd by December 2027, with Brent potentially falling to the mid-$50s per barrel.
The AI Power Pivot: Striven’s Top Call
Striven’s favored commodity is US power, specifically PJM markets like Virginia, which hosts roughly a quarter of global data centers. Data center power demand is projected to double by end of 2027. “It’s this beautiful intersection from an investor perspective of very rapid demand growth… and very fixed supply. It’s very difficult to add power supply. The queues for gas turbines are 5 to 10 years,” Striven said. PJM forecast a record 166 gigawatt load during the July heat dome, underscoring the tightness.
Copper was his second pick, with over 50% of demand tied to electrification, offering dual exposure to EVs and AI power buildout.
Investor Exposure Map
Oil-demand bears. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) sit closest to the China thesis. XOM’s forward P/E of 12 and CVX’s 12 signal analysts expect earnings compression. Chevron’s Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.41 beat estimates even as revenue slipped year over year. Integrated peers BP and Shell face similar demand math.
Power bulls. Vistra (NYSE:VST) is the largest independent producer in PJM at 13.9 GW, with 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.80 billion to $7.60 billion and Meta PPAs at PJM nuclear sites. Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) carries 20.3 GW in PJM, is nuclear-heavy, and posted quarterly revenue growth of 63.8% year over year after closing Calpine. Talen Energy has 13.1 GW in PJM plus a dedicated campus for Pennsylvania data centers.
Copper and EV materials. Freeport-McMoRan, the largest publicly traded copper producer, screens as a direct electrification beneficiary. Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) is the lithium proxy: quarterly revenue growth of 32.7% year over year and an ALB analyst target price of $209.71 vs. a July 7 close of $129.02. BYD and CATL dominate the demand side but sit outside US exchanges.
What Investors Should Watch
The Hormuz story began as a supply shock. Striven reframes it as a demand story with a permanent tail: a China that stockpiles, diversifies, and electrifies faster than the forward curve assumes. If even 10% of the 5 million bpd drop is structural, and if EV penetration keeps climbing at May’s pace, the oil market pricing into 2027 may not resemble the one investors underwrote before the war. Keep an eye on Chinese import data, PJM capacity auctions, and Brent’s ability to hold above the mid-$50s scenario Goldman has now put on the table.
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