Copper Analyst: America Needs as Much Copper in the Next 18 Years as It Mined in the Last 10,000 Years

Dan Dreyfus, founder of Borneite Capital, made a striking case for copper on a recent appearance on the All-In Podcast. By his calculations, simply keeping up with ordinary GDP growth would require the world to extract 700 million tons of copper over the next 18 years, which is roughly the same amount humanity has mined over the last 10,000 years. That comparison sits at the center of his structural bull case.

The Demand Shock

Dreyfus puts current copper consumption at 30 million tons per year, with electrification of the grid, EVs, and data centers driving demand higher. He emphasizes that the shortfall exists even before accounting for AI demand, and that the US grid faces shortfalls even from ordinary electrification. Independent forecasters echo the directional call: an S&P Global study cited in Freeport McMoRan’s filings projects copper demand reaching 42 million metric tons by 2040, and a separate S&P analysis warns the market could face a deficit of more than 10 million metric tons by 2040.

The Supply Shock

The other blade of the scissors, leading to a massive copper shortfall, is supply. Dreyfus notes that only a handful of tier-1 copper mines are coming online before 2030 and that new mines take 7 to 12 years to build. Copper supply is structurally inelastic: even with prices at records, meaningful new tonnage is years away. That gap is what underpins his prediction that “the copper price is easily going to double from here.” Recent disruptions reinforce the point. Copper futures recently touched a record above $6.60 per pound, and Freeport’s own Grasberg mine, hit by a September 2025 mud rush, is not expected to be back at full capacity until late 2027.

China and the National Security Dimension

Dreyfus ties critical minerals to US strategic vulnerability. As an example, China’s April export cutoffs of rare earth materials nearly shut down Ford Motor Company’s entire production line. The episode shows how concentrated control of critical inputs can stall US manufacturing. Copper itself was added to the USGS List of Critical Minerals, and a 50% US tariff on copper imports took effect in 2025, helping domestic producers.

The Macro Hedge and How to Play It

Dreyfus layers a currency-debasement argument on top of the physical thesis, citing $40 trillion in federal debt growing at $2.5 trillion per year. He argues hard assets are the natural hedge, just as commodities were the best-performing asset class of the 1970s. M2 money supply data lends some empirical weight to the backdrop: the Federal Reserve’s latest reading puts M2 at $22.80 trillion as of April 1, 2026, sitting in the 90.9th percentile historically.

Dreyfus spoke at the commodity level rather than naming individual stocks. The available US-listed vehicles for this thesis include Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX | FCX Price Prediction), which CEO Kathleen Quirk has positioned as “America’s Copper Champion,” with a market cap near $91.9 billion and a forward earnings multiple of 23x. Freeport’s 53.53% one-year gain already reflects part of the move. For direct futures exposure, the United States Copper Index Fund (NYSEARCA:CPER) carries a 1.06% expense ratio on $456.4 million in net assets and is up 25.81% over the past year. Freeport’s Q1 2026 8-K details a realized copper price that has risen sharply year over year.

Key Takeaways on Copper

Dreyfus’ copper thesis is ultimately a supply-and-demand story: the world will likely need far more copper than current mines can realistically deliver, and new supply is slow to come online. If global economic growth, electrification, and infrastructure spending continue as expected, copper prices could face sustained upward pressure for years. Investors should remember, however, that commodity markets are cyclical, demand forecasts can prove too optimistic, and new supply may emerge faster than expected. The long-term bull case is compelling, but the path is unlikely to be smooth.