On a recent episode of the podcast Catalyst with Shayle Kann titled “Inside the AI power wars,” energy analyst Jeremy Eliahou Ontiveros delivered a warning that reframes the AI infrastructure trade. The real drivers of the U.S. power crisis, in his view, are the AI labs themselves. “Power is the lifeblood of your business. Power is revenue for Anthropic. If they don’t have power, their business doesn’t exist,” he said.
His numbers frame the stakes. Eliahou Ontiveros said Anthropic wants to go from 1.5 gigawatts of capacity at the end of 2025 to over 10 gigawatts by 2027, which means building more than 8 gigawatts in two years. “That’s the size of Google today. So you’re building a Google in 2 years.” His conclusion: the grid cannot support that pace, forcing AI labs behind the meter. “If you want to be in control of your destiny, the best option… is to simply bring your own generation.”
The Pushback: Transmission Is the Real Bottleneck
Host Shayle Kann pushed back on the generation-constraint framing. He projected 10 to 15 gigawatts of gas and roughly 20 ELCC-adjusted gigawatts of solar and batteries coming online, for a total of around 35 gigawatts. His view of the chokepoint: “You can add generation, but you still need to upgrade a substation and you need a high voltage transformer and that takes 3 years to order.”
Eliahou Ontiveros conceded the point partially, then called even 35 gigawatts “rookie numbers” when the industry is trying to add 50 gigawatts of data centers every year, on top of other load growth. That gap between what can be built and what is being demanded is where investors are looking for exposure.
The Generation Angle: CEG and VST
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG | CEG Price Prediction) closed its Calpine acquisition in January 2026 and now operates a 55 GW fleet as the largest private power producer in the world, with long-term PPAs signed with Microsoft, Meta, and CyrusOne. Its Q1 2026 revenue jumped 63.9% year over year to $11.12 billion, detailed in its Q1 filing. Shares are down 28.82% year to date, even as retail chatter turned bullish on the Walmart nuclear PPA announcement, with r/wallstreetbets sentiment scoring as high as 88 in late June.
Vistra (NYSE:VST) signed 20-year PPAs with Meta for 2,600+ MW at PJM nuclear sites and with AWS for up to 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak. CEO Jim Burke framed the setup: “Load growth remains strong across our primary markets, and we believe a large, diversified, and dispatchable generation fleet like ours is essential in meeting demand.”
The Equipment Angle: GEV, ETN, VRT
GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) sits on both sides of the debate as a supplier of gas turbines and grid equipment. CEO Scott Strazik said the Electrification segment booked $2.4 billion in data center equipment orders in Q1 2026, more than all of last year, and guided to at least 110 GW of combined gas turbine backlog and slot reservation agreements by year-end 2026. Shares are up 64.82% year to date, with an analyst target of $1,222.63.
Eaton (NYSE:ETN) speaks directly to Kann’s transmission-and-distribution thesis. Electrical Americas orders were up 42% organic on a trailing-twelve-month basis, and Eaton closed the $9.55 billion Boyd Thermal acquisition to expand data center cooling capacity. Shares trade near a 30 forward P/E.
Vertiv (NYSE:VRT) is the pure-play data center power and cooling story. Q4 2025 organic orders rose 252% year over year, backlog reached $15 billion, and shares have doubled year to date, up 100.02%. CEO Giordano Albertazzi said “As infrastructure density increases and deployment timelines compress, we’re positioned to be the partner customers need.”
What to Watch
The open question is whether the roughly 35 gigawatts of annual new supply Kann sketched can meet the roughly 50 gigawatts of annual data center demand Eliahou Ontiveros described, and whether substations and transformers can arrive in time. If the analyst’s warning holds, the generation, gas turbine, and T&D equipment stocks are the layers of the AI trade with the tightest supply and loudest demand signal.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks