The 1 Simple Reason to Buy American Express Before July 24 Earnings
American Express reports earnings on July 24, and retirement investors who overlook what is quietly happening inside this premium franchise before that date may be leaving a rare setup on the table.
Retirement-focused investors have a compelling setup in American Express (NYSE:AXP | AXP Price Prediction) before the July 24 earnings report, and the case is straightforward. A premium-customer franchise growing double digits, an aggressive capital return program, and a stock still trading below its December highs make this a rare setup where the fundamentals, the model, and the calendar all point the same direction.
Valuation Is the Easy Part
AXP traded around at $359.94 on July 14 against management’s reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance of $17.30 to $17.90. That is roughly 20x forward earnings for a business that just posted 18% EPS growth and 10% FX-adjusted revenue growth in Q1. The 24/7 Wall St. model targets $390.12 with 90% confidence, and the Street’s consensus sits at $372.22 across 14 Buy ratings versus just one Sell rating. Shares are down 3.43% year-to-date, offering a cheaper entry on a stronger business.
The Income Story Retirement Investors Want
Amex hiked its dividend 16% to 95 cents per share quarterly starting Q1 2026. In that single quarter the company returned $2.3 billion to shareholders, split between $0.7 billion in dividends and $1.7 billion in buybacks. Diluted share count fell to 686 million from 702 million, and Q1 ROE hit 35%. Insiders are voting with cash: 21 recent insider transactions with a net buying direction.
The July 24 Catalyst
Q1 delivered the strongest spend growth in three years: Card Member spending grew 9% FX-adjusted, and Net Card Fees rose 16% FX-adjusted, extending a 30-quarter streak of double-digit net card fee growth. Younger cohorts are compounding: Gen Z spending up 38%, Millennials up 13%. The U.S. Platinum refresh drove a 6-percentage-point acceleration in Platinum spend, most of it from tenured cardholders. Polymarket bettors assign a 74.5% probability that Q2 revenue clears $19.5B. CEO Stephen Squeri summed it up: “We had a very strong start to the year, reflecting continued momentum across our premium customer base.”
Why AXP Beats the Obvious Alternative
The reflex comparison is Visa (NYSE:V). Visa is a pure transaction toll-taker with no equivalent to AXP’s Net Card Fees line, the fastest-growing pillar at Amex at 16% FX-adjusted growth. AXP also owns the customer relationship through its closed-loop network, which is why over 70% of new accounts are on fee-paying products. Retirement investors get compounding fee income on top of swipe volume, and the credit book is behaving: net write-off rate improved to 2.0% from 2.1%.
The July 24 report is the near-term catalyst to watch.
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Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
