Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD | BYD Price Prediction) stands out in gaming heading into its confirmed July 23 earnings release, and the setup is doing most of the work for you. The 24/7 Wall St.’s base case pegs fair value at $102.07 against an $86.03 print as of July 14, a 16.91% upside call with a 90% confidence score and a Buy recommendation. The conviction case rests on a buyback machine, a rerating catalyst two weeks out and a valuation that ignores the earnings power underneath.
Valuation Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
BYD trades at a forward P/E of 11 against a 50-day moving average of $84.99 and a 200-day of $83.94. That is a low-double-digit multiple on a business generating $317.42 million in quarterly adjusted EBITDAR with property margins exceeding 39%. The analyst consensus target of $93.94 already implies room to run, and Wall Street’s rating mix skews neutral-to-bullish with zero sell ratings across 19 analysts.
The Capital Return Is the Real Story
CEO Keith Smith is aggressively shrinking the share count. Boyd returned $155 million in Q1 2026 repurchases plus a raised $0.20 quarterly dividend, with the board authorizing an additional $500 million buyback and roughly $707 million remaining. Management guided to $150 million per quarter in repurchases, worth approximately $9 per share in value for shareholders in 2026. Over the past four and a half years, Boyd has returned $2.9 billion to shareholders and reduced the share count by more than 33%.
Why BYD Wins the Head-to-Head
The obvious alternatives are MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) and Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ:PENN). Boyd finished Q1 with traditional leverage of 1.8x and lease-adjusted leverage of 2.4x, the strongest balance sheet in the company’s history. MGM and Penn have historically carried materially heavier debt loads and neither runs a buyback intensity that matches Boyd’s 33% share count reduction over the last four-plus years. Penn’s persistent Interactive losses have kept its forward earnings visibility murky, while Boyd’s Online segment is guided to $30 million to $35 million in EBITDA this year, a cleaner profile.
The July 23 Catalyst
Q2 2025 delivered an EPS surprise of +14.82% with a same-day pop of +4.4%. Momentum has since rebuilt: Midwest & South revenues grew 4% and EBITDAR grew 5% with margins near 37%, and Smith noted customer trends from Q1 continued into April. Options positioning confirms the tilt with a 0.17 full-chain put/call ratio.
The setup heading into the July 23 report combines a buyback-driven share count reduction, sector-low leverage, and a valuation that leaves room for a rerating.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks