Live: Will ServiceNow’s Q2 Earnings Tonight Drive a Rebound After 38% YTD Decline?

ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW | NOW Price Prediction) reports Q2 earnings tonight.

The Consensus Bar

• EPS estimate: $0.40, versus $0.82 in Q2 2025 (pre-split)
• Subscription revenue guide: $3.650B–$3.655B, +21.5% GAAP
• cRPO growth guide: 22.5% GAAP
• Non-GAAP operating margin: 31.5%

Price and Positioning

NOW last traded at $95.66, off 6.27% intraday, -8.08% on the week, and -37.59% YTD.

The full-chain put/call has slipped to 0.53, and the July 24 expiry shows 27,419 calls versus 19,615 puts, pricing in an outsized move.

What Triggers a Rebound

A cRPO print above 23% GAAP, a Now Assist update pacing toward the $1B ACV target, and an FY2026 subscription raise above $15.57B would reset the narrative.

A subscription cut below $15.53B, margin under 31.5%, or vague AI monetization language could extend the stock’s drawdown.

With shares trading at $95.84, down 6.09% intraday ahead of the 4:10 PM ET Q2 earnings release, here is what to listen for on tonight’s call.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

• Is Now Assist tracking to the $1B ACV target by 2026?
• How much cRPO was pulled forward by the July 1 pricing change?
• Financial exposure from CVE-2026-6875?
• Armis, Veza, and Moveworks integration timeline?
• Federal deal slippage quantified?

Key Topics Management Must Address

• Subscription gross margin trajectory after the drop to 82.5%
• Pace of the $2B accelerated buyback
• H2 guidance framing

Buzzwords to Listen For

• “AI control tower,” “agentic operating system,” “Rule of 55+,” “platinum standard”

Red Flags

• cRPO growth below 22.5% guidance
• Operating margin softer than 31.5%
• Any FY2026 subscription cut below $15.53B
• Vague AI monetization metrics

Several wildcards could swing tonight’s reaction for ServiceNow’s (NYSE:NOW) Q2 earnings.

Security Exploit in the Wild

A critical sandbox-escape flaw, CVE-2026-6875 with a CVSS score of 9.5, is being actively exploited, and 31% of tested instances exposed data without credentials.

Management commentary on remediation costs is a swing factor.

Pricing Pull-Forward

A new pricing model effective July 1, 2026, triggered early renewals, which Jefferies flagged and KeyBanc cited in its Underweight, $85 target.

cRPO strength could potentially be borrowed from the upcoming Q3 quarter.

Mix Shift and M&A Drag

Self-hosted-to-hosted conversion carries a ~150bps subscription headwind, while Armis, Veza, and Moveworks integration adds noise.

Options positioning is calm, with a full-chain put/call ratio of 0.54.

ServiceNow reports Q2 FY2026 earnings at 4:10 PM ET tonight after the closing bell, with shares down 33.38% year to date.

The central question is whether the company’s underlying growth remains strong enough to justify a rebound. Revenue is still growing 22.1%, while Now Assist net new annual contract value more than doubled year over year in Q4, keeping the company’s $1 billion AI target within reach.

Investors will also measure the results against ServiceNow’s FY2026 subscription revenue guidance of $15.53 billion to $15.57 billion. Current remaining performance obligations, or cRPO, will be one of the most important indicators of future demand.

Wall Street remains firmly bullish, with 43 buy ratings, only one sell rating, and an average price target of $141.64. A strong cRPO result could reestablish ServiceNow as a durable software compounder.