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ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW | NOW Price Prediction) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings results tonight at 4:10 PM ET after today’s close. With shares down 46.84% over the past year and trading at $95.61, this earnings report carries unusual weight for Bill McDermott’s AI narrative.
Momentum Meets a Reset in Sentiment
ServiceNow closed out fiscal year 2025 in a big way. Revenue hit $3.568B (+20.66% YoY), subscription revenue reached $3.466B (+21% YoY), and cRPO climbed to $12.85B, up 25%. Free cash flow of $2.0B pushed Q4 FCF margin to 57%.
However, the stock’s performance tells a different story. A 5-for-1 split took effect December 2025, and shares have since compressed, sitting roughly 55% below the 52-week high of $210.20. The stock’s forward P/E of 25 reflects that reset. Reddit’s r/stockmarket flagged the disconnect, noting NOW has been “growing free cash flow per share by over 20% per year for over a decade.”
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q2 FY26 Guide |
YoY |
FY26 Guide |
| Subscription Revenue |
N/A (Q1 guide: $3,650M-$3,655M) |
~21.5% GAAP |
$15,530M-$15,570M |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin |
Q1: 31.5% |
expanding |
32% |
| FCF Margin (FY) |
– |
– |
36% |
Growth is expected to hold in the low 20s, but a ~150bps self-hosted-to-hosted mix headwind and ~100bps Moveworks drag weigh on Q1 optics. That means any softening in cRPO could suggest deceleration is coming.
What I’m Watching: AI Monetization, Margins, and M&A
Tonight, I’ll be watching how ServiceNow frames Now Assist against the $1B ACV target originally set for 2026. Q4’s 244 transactions above $1M in net new ACV raised the bar, and repeat traction here anchors the agentic AI thesis.
Investors will also focus on subscription gross margin, which slipped to 82.5% in Q4 from 84.5% on AI infrastructure spend. FY26 is guided to 82%, so any further slippage complicates the operating margin path to 32%.
Integration cadence for Moveworks and the pending Armis and Veza acquisitions are also important factors. So does U.S. Federal commentary given upcoming agency budget tightening.
Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
1-Day Move |
1-Week Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q4 25 |
+3.37% |
+0.24% |
-12.08% |
-3.03% |
| Q3 25 |
+13.00% |
-1.65% |
-8.12% |
-11.80% |
| Q2 25 |
+14.63% |
-2.75% |
-5.33% |
-11.67% |
| Q1 25 |
+5.36% |
+0.71% |
+2.06% |
+9.46% |
On average, shares moved -5.87% one week after earnings over the past year.
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