A Chinese CEO Just Outlined the Bear Case for NVIDIA. It Should Terrify Owners of the Stock.
A leaked investor call from a Chinese AI CEO contains a pointed argument about the one assumption holding up NVIDIA's entire valuation, and if the logic holds, the fallout reaches well beyond NVDA stock.
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The bull case for NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) looks strong on paper. NVDA stock trades at $208.48, up 22% over the past year; the company just posted $81.61 billion in quarterly revenue; and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang keeps describing the AI buildout as the largest infrastructure project in history.
However, a reported set of remarks out of China this week hits at the one thing bulls take for granted: NVIDIA’s CUDA software moat. If the thesis is right, it changes the math on NVDA stock; by extension, this could also carry negative implications for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) as well as individual U.S. chip names like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).
The Chinese CEO Behind the Bear Case
According to a summary of a leaked investor call attributed to DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng, posted on X by Citrini Research analyst Jukan (@jukan05), DeepSeek is working closely with Huawei and believes it can secure roughly 16,000 Huawei AI chips. The remarks are reported and unverified.
The reported claims go further. Wenfeng allegedly argued that AI-powered code generation and languages such as TileLang could rapidly lower the CUDA ecosystem’s barriers to entry, and that DeepSeek has already cut its software dependence on NVIDIA using its own compiler and a TileLang-based environment. Port that stack to Huawei silicon, the argument goes, and Huawei’s 950 SuperNode could replace workloads currently handled by NVIDIA’s GB200 and GB300.
Jukan’s own summary characterization, not a Wenfeng quote, was blunt: “The end of CUDA’s moat is approaching. The ecosystem problem for Chinese chips could be solved within a year. The only real bottleneck left is production itself.” He added he was “Very bearish on NVDA.”
A Balanced View: The Gap Is Still Real
Even the leaked remarks concede NVIDIA’s lead. It reportedly takes roughly four Huawei cards to match one NVIDIA card, with Huawei described as about two years behind. Porting an unproven software stack across ecosystems is genuinely hard.
The fundamentals reinforce that. NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue hit $75.25 billion, up 92%, non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.87 versus the $1.77 estimate, and management disclosed $119 billion in supply-related commitments alongside an $80 billion buyback authorization. NVIDIA stock carries a trailing P/E ratio of 32x, and because earnings are compounding so quickly, the forward multiple looks meaningfully lower.
Analyst sentiment on NVDA remains overwhelmingly bullish: 58 Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell. That lopsided tally underscores how far Wall Street’s consensus sits from the CUDA-erosion thesis outlined above.
Earnings Preview: August 26
NVIDIA reports its fiscal Q2 2027 results on August 26 after the close. NVIDIA’s guidance calls for revenue of $91 billion plus or minus 2% with non-GAAP gross margin of 75%, and it explicitly excludes any Data Center compute revenue from China, meaning China weakness is already priced into the outlook.
Investors can watch for Data Center growth, the Blackwell and Vera Rubin ramp, gross margin durability, and any direct commentary from Huang addressing the CUDA-moat narrative. The CUDA erosion thesis is a real multi-year risk resting on unverified claims, set against a company still growing at extraordinary rates. That tension, and not just a single verdict, is what NVIDIA shareholders need to sit with.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
