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Deckers Brands (NYSE:DECK | DECK Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 results tonight at 4:05 PM ET after the market closes. Shares are down 4.81% to $98.12 during Thursday’s intraday trading, and shares are down 9.12% in the past year.
Momentum Meets a Margin Reset
Q4 delivered $0.96 EPS on $1.12 billion in revenue, with HOKA up 14.5% and UGG up 9.2%. International sales jumped 25.5%, but US revenue crept up only 0.3%.
Operating income slipped 9.89% despite the revenue gain, with SG&A at $487.91 million. Management framed FY2027 gross margin at about 56.5%, absorbing tariff pressure from the $120 million or so in IEFA tariffs paid on FY2026 inventory. Shares are down 1.16% year to date, reflecting the reset from record FY2026 profits.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q1 FY2027 Guide |
YoY Change |
FY2027 Guide |
| Revenue |
~$1.01B |
+~5% |
$5.86B-$5.91B |
| Diluted EPS |
$0.82-$0.87 |
vs $0.93 |
$7.30-$7.45 |
The Q1 EPS estimate range sits below last year’s $0.93. Deceleration reflects tariff wraparound, SG&A growth outpacing sales, and wholesale shipment timing that pulled HOKA volume forward in the prior year’s EMEA 3PL transition.
Tariffs, HOKA Timing, and US Demand Take Center Stage
There are a couple of key developments I’ll be watching with Deckers Brands tonight. First, guidance calls for high single-digit growth primarily from DTC, a step down from last year’s 19.8% Q1 numbers. Management flagged delayed APAC distributor shipments and the Clifton Pro launch in July as timing dynamics that mask underlying momentum.
Investors will also focus on gross margin cadence. CFO Steven Fasching noted the FY2027 setup carries “higher freight costs from rising transportation costs and shipping disruption related to the ongoing Middle East conflict and increased input costs related to material upgrades.” Q1 will absorb the bulk of that first-half tariff wraparound.
US domestic performance also matters. Consumer sentiment collapsed to 44.8 in May, the lowest in 12 months. HOKA lifestyle traction through Mafate SP2 and Bondi 7, plus UGG’s Otzo Clog and Minimal sneaker, needs to hold full-price sell-through.
Finally, I’ll look at how management talks about the FY2030 framework after CFO and CEO disposed of 21,944 and 10,532 shares, respectively, on May 20, offset by nine directors buying on June 1.
Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q4 FY2026 |
+15.61% |
+3.95% |
+3.89% |
-3.82% |
| Q3 FY2026 |
+20.47% |
+19.46% |
-3.26% |
-8.88% |
| Q2 FY2026 |
+15.19% |
-15.21% |
-6.26% |
-1.69% |
| Q1 FY2026 |
+36.6% |
+11.35% |
-11.55% |
-2.70% |
On average, shares moved -4.29% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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