Live: Will Seagate Technologies Crush Tonight’s Q4 Earnings Report?
Quick Read
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STX enters Q4 FY2026 earnings up 445% over the past year, with management guiding $3.45B revenue and $5.00 EPS at midpoint.
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HAMR Mozaic qualification with the final two major cloud customers and exabyte shipments above 210 are the critical swing factors today.
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Dave Mosley raised the multi-year revenue growth target to at least 20%, with nearline capacity almost fully allocated through calendar 2027.
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Live Updates
Stay On This Site to Receive Live $STX Q4 Earnings Updates
This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Seagate Technologies’ earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Seagate to release earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.
Seagate Technology Q4 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up
That wraps up our initial coverage of Seagate’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!
Seagate’s Fiscal 2027 Guidance Signals Another Major Growth Step
Seagate Technology expects its momentum to accelerate into fiscal 2027, guiding for first-quarter revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, and adjusted EPS of $7.30, plus or minus $0.20.
At the midpoint, that represents approximately 13% sequential revenue growth and 28% sequential adjusted EPS growth from Q4. Management expects minimal impact from tariffs or the current Middle East conflict.
The outlook suggests Seagate’s record fiscal 2026 was more than a cyclical peak. Robust cloud data-center demand and the Mozaic HAMR ramp are carrying meaningful momentum into the new fiscal year.
Seagate’s Profit Margins Just Exploded Higher
Seagate’s Q4 revenue increased 48% year over year to $3.629 billion, but earnings grew considerably faster as the company captured massive operating leverage.
Adjusted gross margin expanded to 52.7% from 37.9%, while adjusted operating margin jumped to 44.6% from 26.2%. Adjusted EPS more than doubled to $5.71 from $2.59.
Higher-capacity drives allow cloud customers to store more data efficiently while enabling Seagate to generate substantially more profit from each dollar of revenue.
Seagate Earnings Are Out - Stock Up 1% on Results
Seagate Technology just reported earnings, with shares initially up 1% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
- Revenue: $3.629 billion vs. $3.49 billion expected
- Adjusted EPS: $5.71 vs. $5.09 expected
- Adjusted Gross Margin: 52.7%
- Free Cash Flow: $1.1 billion
Quick Read:
Seagate beat revenue estimates by 4% and adjusted EPS estimates by 12%, with revenue rising 48% year over year.
Record annual free cash flow of $3.1 billion and robust cloud data-center demand strengthen the Mozaic and HAMR growth story heading into fiscal 2027.
Final Countdown: What Moves STX Tonight
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) earnings are due at 4:05 PM ET.
Company guidance: $3.45 billion in revenue and $5.00 non-GAAP EPS; Street consensus: $5.09 on $3.49 billion.
Key KPIs: non-GAAP gross margin (last: 47.0%), Mozaic HAMR qualifications, nearline exabyte shipments, free cash flow (last quarter: $953 million), and FY27 framing.
Fresh catalyst: Rosenblatt initiated coverage at Buy with a $1,300 target this afternoon, joining Wedbush and Morgan Stanley defending shares through the sector selloff.
Positioning is defensive. Put/call ratio: 1.21; shares at $750.60 after 8.13% intraday drop.
Trigger levels: EPS above $5.20 with margins expanding past 48% validates the AI storage thesis; a result under $5.00 with soft FY27 commentary risks a sharp reset given the 197.42% YTD rally.
4 Wildcards That Could Surprise STX Investors Tonight
Four Wildcards Not Priced Into Consensus
Beyond the headline guidance, four surprise factors could swing tonight’s reaction.
First, tariff escalation: management’s Q4 outlook assumed “minimal expected impact from global tariff policies”, leaving any commentary shift as unpriced risk.
Second, the Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 carry dilution that scales with the share price, currently $750.46.
Third, Pillar Two global minimum tax pushes Seagate (NASDAQ:STX)’s Ireland-domiciled effective rate into the mid-teens for FY2026, a potential tax-line surprise.
Fourth, exabyte shipments. Polymarket crowds assign 89.5% odds above 210 EB but only 39.5% above 220 EB. A reported figure above 220 EB would validate HAMR/Mozaic yield claims.
Shares already slid 8.14% today, and July 31 put/call volume ratio sits at 1.08, confirming that investors are hedging ahead of earnings.
Seagate's Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Tonight's Q4 Earnings
Bull Case
- Momentum is undeniable: Seagate has posted four straight beats, most recently topping estimates by 16.94% in Q3.
- AI storage tailwind: Polymarket assigns a 91.5% probability of exabyte shipments exceeding 200 EB, validating hyperscaler demand.
- Analyst conviction: 21 Buy ratings versus 1 Sell, with a $1,008.61 average target.
Bear Case
- Valuation stretched: Shares trade at a P/E of 81 after a 197.42% YTD run.
- Sell-the-news risk: Despite a Q2 beat, the stock fell 14.32% over 30 days.
- Defensive positioning: Put volume of 6,142 exceeds calls at the July 31 expiration, and insiders show net selling.
- Consensus is elevated: Street expects $5.09 EPS on $3.49 billion, above guidance midpoints.
Watch the Mozaic HAMR commentary and FY27 framing for direction.
Seagate’s 197% Rally Faces Its Biggest Test Yet Tonight
Seagate Technology reports fiscal Q4 earnings tonight at 4:05 PM ET after the bell, with management guiding to $3.45 billion in revenue and $5.00 in earnings per share at the midpoint.
The company is pursuing its fifth consecutive earnings beat, but expectations have soared alongside the stock’s 197.42% year-to-date rally. Investors will focus on the Mozaic HAMR ramp, cloud customer qualifications, and management’s initial framing of fiscal 2027 growth.
Seagate now trades at roughly 81 times trailing earnings, while the $1,008.61 average analyst target assumes continued HAMR-driven operating leverage. A clean beat could reinforce the structural growth story.
However, weaker exabyte shipments or qualification delays would revive concerns that Seagate remains a cyclical hard-drive company enjoying an unusually strong upturn.
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) reports fiscal Q4 2026 results tonight at 4:05 PM ET. With shares up 445.89% over the past year, but down 8.28% today, the earnings report will test whether HAMR execution and cloud demand can justify a $170 billion market cap.
Momentum Meets a Higher Bar
Last quarter reset expectations. Seagate delivered $3.1 billion in revenue, up 44% year-over-year, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding to 47% from 36.2% a year earlier. Free cash flow reached $953 million, the highest in over a decade.
CEO Dave Mosley raised the multi-year revenue growth target from “low- to mid-teens to a minimum of 20% over the next few years,” citing structural AI-driven storage demand. Nearline capacity is almost fully allocated through calendar 2027. Since the April earnings report, STX has climbed 41.2%, though it has slipped 9.21% over the past month as investors digest valuation.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY2026 Guide Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.49B | +41% | $3.45B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $5.09 | N/A | $5.00 |
Consensus sits just above management’s guided midpoint, a modest cushion given Seagate’s four consecutive beats ranging from 6.01% to 16.94%. Operating margin is guided to the lower 40% range, extending the leverage story.
HAMR Qualification and Margin Durability Take Center Stage
Tonight, I’ll be watching four things when Seagate reports.
- Mozaic qualification progress. Two of the four largest cloud customers were qualified in Q3, with the remaining two expected to complete qualification in the current quarter. Confirmation matters for the fiscal 2027 target of 70% of nearline exabytes on HAMR.
- Exabyte shipments. Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability that Q4 hard drive exabytes exceed 190, but only 51.5% above 210. Confidence in the 210 threshold dropped 24 percentage points in four days.
- Margin trajectory. Incremental gross margin has held above 70%, well ahead of the prior 50% framework. Investors will focus on whether pricing gains and HAMR mix keep that pace.
- Capital returns. Seagate retired $641 million in debt last quarter with roughly $400 million in convertible notes remaining. Management flagged that the majority will probably go to share buybacks once debt reduction winds down.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-Of Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | +16.94% | +11.1% | +22.25% | +43.21% |
| Q2 FY2026 | +9.58% | +19.14% | -5.49% | -14.32% |
| Q1 FY2026 | +8.75% | +19.11% | +3.82% | +1.69% |
| Q4 FY2025 | +6.01% | +6.51% | -5.67% | +8.59% |
On average, shares moved 3.73% in the week after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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