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Live: Will Seagate Technologies Crush Tonight’s Q4 Earnings Report?
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Quick Read
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STX enters Q4 FY2026 earnings up 445% over the past year, with management guiding $3.45B revenue and $5.00 EPS at midpoint.
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HAMR Mozaic qualification with the final two major cloud customers and exabyte shipments above 210 are the critical swing factors today.
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Dave Mosley raised the multi-year revenue growth target to at least 20%, with nearline capacity almost fully allocated through calendar 2027.
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Seagate’s 197% Rally Faces Its Biggest Test Yet Tonight
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Seagate Technology reports fiscal Q4 earnings tonight at 4:05 PM ET after the bell, with management guiding to $3.45 billion in revenue and $5.00 in earnings per share at the midpoint.
The company is pursuing its fifth consecutive earnings beat, but expectations have soared alongside the stock’s 197.42% year-to-date rally. Investors will focus on the Mozaic HAMR ramp, cloud customer qualifications, and management’s initial framing of fiscal 2027 growth.
Seagate now trades at roughly 81 times trailing earnings, while the $1,008.61 average analyst target assumes continued HAMR-driven operating leverage. A clean beat could reinforce the structural growth story.
However, weaker exabyte shipments or qualification delays would revive concerns that Seagate remains a cyclical hard-drive company enjoying an unusually strong upturn.
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q4 2026 results tonight at 4:05 PM ET. With shares up 445.89% over the past year, but down 8.28% today, the earnings report will test whether HAMR execution and cloud demand can justify a $170 billion market cap.
Momentum Meets a Higher Bar
Last quarter reset expectations. Seagate delivered $3.1 billion in revenue, up 44% year-over-year, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding to 47% from 36.2% a year earlier. Free cash flow reached $953 million, the highest in over a decade.
CEO Dave Mosley raised the multi-year revenue growth target from “low- to mid-teens to a minimum of 20% over the next few years,” citing structural AI-driven storage demand. Nearline capacity is almost fully allocated through calendar 2027. Since the April earnings report, STX has climbed 41.2%, though it has slipped 9.21% over the past month as investors digest valuation.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY2026 Guide Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.49B | +41% | $3.45B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $5.09 | N/A | $5.00 |
Consensus sits just above management’s guided midpoint, a modest cushion given Seagate’s four consecutive beats ranging from 6.01% to 16.94%. Operating margin is guided to the lower 40% range, extending the leverage story.
HAMR Qualification and Margin Durability Take Center Stage
Tonight, I’ll be watching four things when Seagate reports.
- Mozaic qualification progress. Two of the four largest cloud customers were qualified in Q3, with the remaining two expected to complete qualification in the current quarter. Confirmation matters for the fiscal 2027 target of 70% of nearline exabytes on HAMR.
- Exabyte shipments. Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability that Q4 hard drive exabytes exceed 190, but only 51.5% above 210. Confidence in the 210 threshold dropped 24 percentage points in four days.
- Margin trajectory. Incremental gross margin has held above 70%, well ahead of the prior 50% framework. Investors will focus on whether pricing gains and HAMR mix keep that pace.
- Capital returns. Seagate retired $641 million in debt last quarter with roughly $400 million in convertible notes remaining. Management flagged that the majority will probably go to share buybacks once debt reduction winds down.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-Of Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | +16.94% | +11.1% | +22.25% | +43.21% |
| Q2 FY2026 | +9.58% | +19.14% | -5.49% | -14.32% |
| Q1 FY2026 | +8.75% | +19.11% | +3.82% | +1.69% |
| Q4 FY2025 | +6.01% | +6.51% | -5.67% | +8.59% |
On average, shares moved 3.73% in the week after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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