Live: Can Applied Digital Rebound From Its 33% Selloff After Tonight’s Q4 Results?

That wraps up our initial coverage of APLD’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Tonight’s report from Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) delivered several items Wall Street was not expecting:

Upside Surprises

• Backlog jump: Contracted revenue vaulted to $36 billion across 1.4 gigawatts, well above the $16 billion figure carried into the report.
• New hyperscaler: A high-investment-grade tenant signed 810 megawatts across three leases, addressing CoreWeave concentration head-on.
• Revenue explosion: Adjusted revenue of $240.4 million versus consensus $95.32 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $42.4 million from $1.0 million a year ago.

Concerns and One-Time Items

• Stock-based comp: $127.8 million drove the GAAP loss of $0.39, missing the $0.28 expected loss and extending the accelerated-vesting pattern.
• Fit-out lumpiness: HPC Hosting included $152.4 million in tenant fit-out, a low-margin, non-recurring line inflating the headline.

Applied Digital delivered another 75 megawatts of capacity at Polaris Forge 1 on schedule, lifting the AI campus to 175 megawatts of live capacity.

The company’s first 100-megawatt building began operating in October 2025, providing evidence that its massive contracted pipeline is progressing from signed leases into revenue-generating infrastructure.

The company has raised billions to support the next phase. Applied Digital completed a $2.15 billion secured-notes offering to fund Polaris Forge 2, followed by another $1.59 billion offering to finance the fourth building at Polaris Forge 1. It also expanded its committed revolving credit facility to $430 million.

Applied Digital now has approximately 1.4 gigawatts under construction across five campuses. The next major test is whether it can repeat the on-time Polaris Forge delivery across a far larger development pipeline without financing costs or construction delays eroding the economics.

Applied Digital has now secured approximately 1.4 gigawatts of critical IT load across five AI data center campuses. Those leases represent roughly $36 billion in contracted revenue over their initial 15-year terms, rising to approximately $86 billion if customers exercise every renewal option.

The newest growth engine is a high-investment-grade hyperscaler that signed three separate leases totaling 810 megawatts. Two 300-megawatt campuses carry approximately $7.5 billion in contracted revenue apiece, while a third 210-megawatt site adds another $5.2 billion.

Applied Digital is also marketing another 1.7 gigawatts of capacity across multiple states. The backlog has officially reached hyperscale, shifting the investment debate from customer demand to whether Applied Digital can deliver all five campuses on schedule.

Applied Digital delivered fiscal Q4 revenue of $258.7 million, up 407% year over year, as its AI infrastructure buildout began translating into reported results. This resulted in a 152% revenue beat vs consensus estimates.

Adjusted revenue excluding ChronoScale reached $240.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA surged to $42.4 million from just $1.0 million one year ago.

The HPC Hosting segment generated $203.0 million in quarterly revenue and $26.2 million in operating profit. That included $44.1 million in base rent, $152.4 million from tenant fit-out services, and $6.5 million in tenant reimbursements.

Applied Digital still reported a GAAP loss of $0.39 per share, partly reflecting $127.8 million in stock-based compensation. However, adjusted net income reached $12.9 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared with an adjusted loss of $0.03 per share last year.

Applied Digital just reported Q4 earnings, with shares initially up 4% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $240.35 million vs. $95.32 million expected
• EPS: Loss of $0.39 vs. loss of $0.28 expected

Quick Read:

Revenue crushed expectations by 152%, climbing 532% year over year and 90% sequentially.

The massive top-line beat outweighed the wider-than-expected loss, although EPS declined 63% year over year and 8% sequentially.

Top 5 Analyst Questions:

• Can HPC Hosting sustain $71 million ex-fit-out run rate into Q1 FY27?
• Is Delta Forge 1’s lease signed to hit mid-2027 RFS?
• Status of ChronoScale/EKSO closing this quarter?
• Progress on the three-site, 900 MW hyperscaler exclusivity?
• Timeline to refinance from project loans into ABS?

Key Topics, Buzzwords, Red Flags

• Key Topics: CoreWeave’s A3 SPV rating, Base Electron’s 1.2 GW power buildout, and reaffirmation of the $1B NOI five-year goal.
• Buzzwords: “direct-to-chip liquid cooling,” “Ready-for-Service,” “NOI run rate,” “tenant fit-out,” “multi-gigawatt pipeline.”
• Red Flags: Widening GAAP losses beyond $100.9M, another SG&A spike from accelerated stock comp, softer HPC base rent, or hedging language on lease signings this year. Insider selling from CEO, CFO, and President at $35.52–$45.20 raises the bar for a confidence-restoring guide.

Wall Street expects Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) to post Q4 EPS of -$0.19 on revenue of $95.3 million, a sequential step down from Q3’s $126.64 million. Shares last traded at $26.63, down 2.02% on the day, extending a brutal 43.28% slide since June 1.

Metrics That Matter

• HPC Hosting revenue after last quarter’s $71.0 million
• Timing on the second 150 MW Polaris Forge 1 building
• Initial 200 MW Polaris Forge 2 capacity
• CoreWeave concentration
• Reaffirmation of the $1 billion NOI target within five years

What Could Move Shares

Options positioning skews bullish, with a 3.28:1 call/put ratio across earnings-week contracts. An HPC Hosting shortfall or slipped Polaris timelines could accelerate selling, while a beat plus a new hyperscaler contract could spark a snap-back toward the $73.05 average analyst target.

Options positioning heading into tonight’s report skews decisively bullish. The full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.42, and the July 31 weekly shows call volume of 17,309 versus 5,896 puts, a 2.94:1 skew.

Institutional bets extend further out. January 2027 calls hold 173,554 contracts in open interest against a put/call ratio of just 0.14, and January 2028 shows a 6.54:1 call OI skew. Insiders have echoed the tone with 10 recent transactions and net buying.

The roughly 13.72% implied move quantifies the expected swing by Friday’s close. Q3 2026 delivered a 142.86% EPS beat, yet Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) closed -7.99% on earnings day before rallying 17.68% over the following week. Tonight pairs bullish flow with a battered chart.

Tonight’s fiscal Q4 2026 report from Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) arrives with shares at $26.12, down 2.23% intraday. Options are pricing a 13.72% post-earnings swing.

The Bar to Clear: Q3’s $126.64 million revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.09 reset expectations sharply. Investors want HPC Hosting to hold Q3’s $71 million run rate and Data Center Hosting to build on $37.5 million.

Move Triggers: Guidance on the second 150 MW Polaris Forge 1 facility, any new hyperscaler leases beyond the $16 billion backlog, ChronoScale/EKSO closing timeline, and commentary on the $2.7 billion debt load could drive the stock after earnings.

History Warns Both Ways: Q3’s 142.86% beat still sent shares -7.99% on release day before a 17.68% one-week rally. With Morgan Stanley’s $36.50 Equal Weight target framing skepticism, execution details matter more than the headline beat.

With shares at $26.37 and consensus looking for -$0.19 EPS on $95.3M revenue, here is where the Bull vs Bear case stands.

Bull Case

• Beat streak: Five straight beats, with Q3 FY26 topping estimates by 142.86%.
• Backlog: 600 MW leased tied to roughly $16 billion in prospective lease revenue.
• Post-earnings pattern: Average one-week gain of 11.13% even after weak day-of reactions.

Bear Case

• GAAP losses widening: Q3 FY26 net loss of $100.9M.
• Leverage: $2.7B debt against $2.1B cash, plus ongoing capital raises.
• Concentration risk: Heavy reliance on CoreWeave and hyperscaler ramp timing.
• Skepticism: Shares down 35.23% over the past month.

Watch the guide and CoreWeave commentary closely.

Applied Digital reports fiscal Q4 2026 results with shares down 35.23% over the past month. Options markets are pricing in a sizable 13.72% post-earnings move, while a 0.43 put/call ratio signals traders remain tilted toward upside bets.

The central question is whether Applied Digital can convert its $16 billion contracted backlog and 1-gigawatt pipeline into a repeatable earnings engine before its capital requirements become a bigger concern. Investors will be watching for the ChronoScale/EKSO spin-off closing, progress on the HPC ramp, and any update on the company’s exposure to CoreWeave.

Wall Street remains firmly bullish, with 11 buy ratings and an average price target of $73.05 vs the stock’s current price of $26.13. That optimism leaves Applied Digital little room for delays, dilution, or margin pressure as enthusiasm surrounding the broader AI infrastructure trade cools.