Live: Will Qualcomm Smash Q3 Earnings Tonight After 5% YTD Decline?
Quick Read
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Amon flagged Q3 as QCOM's revenue trough, with EPS guided down approximately 21% YoY to a range of $2.10 to $2.30 amid Chinese handset weakness.
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Automotive hit a record $1.33B on 38% growth, while hyperscaler silicon shipments and the Alphawave acquisition anchor Qualcomm's data center pivot.
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Live Updates
Stay On This Site to Receive Live Qualcomm Q3 Earnings Updates
This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Qualcomm’s earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Qualcomm to release earnings shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.
Qualcomm Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up
That wraps up our initial coverage of Qualcomm’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!
Rising Input Costs Squeeze Qualcomm’s Margins
Qualcomm’s $9.95 billion in revenue came near the high end of guidance, but profitability deteriorated sharply. Non-GAAP EPS fell 20% year over year to $2.21, while QCT’s earnings before taxes margin contracted four percentage points to 26%.
Management blamed broad increases in wafer fabrication, memory, advanced packaging, assembly, and testing costs. Qualcomm is raising product prices in response, but those changes will take time to support gross margins.
For fiscal Q4, Qualcomm guided revenue to $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion and adjusted EPS to $2.05 to $2.25. The midpoint implies little near-term earnings improvement, helping explain why shares are down roughly 4%.
Qualcomm Sees Non-Handset Growth Accelerating Above 60%
Qualcomm expects non-handset revenue growth, including data centers, to accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to more than 60% in fiscal 2027.
Management is targeting $40 billion in annual non-handset revenue by fiscal 2029, nearly double the goal presented in November 2024. That outlook rests on growth across automotive, IoT, PCs, extended reality, and Qualcomm’s emerging data center business.
If executed, non-handset growth could transform the company from a smartphone chip supplier into a broader computing platform.
Qualcomm’s Automotive Revenue Soars 61% to a Record
Qualcomm’s diversification strategy delivered a major bright spot during fiscal Q3 results. Automotive revenue surged 61% year over year to a record $1.59 billion, marking the segment’s 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
IoT revenue also increased 9% to $1.83 billion. Combined automotive and IoT revenue climbed 28%, helping offset a 20% decline in handset revenue to $5.09 billion.
The results show Qualcomm is steadily reducing its smartphone dependence. However, the newer businesses remain too small to fully overcome handset weakness, leaving total QCT revenue down 5% to $8.50 billion.
Qualcomm Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Plummets 7% on Results
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) just reported earnings, with shares initially down 7% following the release. Here are the key numbers:
- Revenue: $9.95 billion vs. $9.67 billion expected
- Adjusted EPS: $2.21 vs. $2.22 expected
Quick Read:
Qualcomm beat revenue estimates but narrowly missed on earnings, with adjusted EPS falling 20% year over year as margins came under pressure.
The key question is whether that weakness came from the cyclical handset chip business or Qualcomm’s high-margin licensing franchise. Investors will also watch whether automotive and IoT growth can offset continued smartphone weakness.
4 Wildcards That Could Surprise Investors in Qualcomm's Q3 Earnings Report Tonight
Four wildcards sit outside consensus into tonight’s earnings report.
Apple Vertical Integration
Qualcomm flagged “customers vertically integrating their own chip solutions” as a risk. Any incremental commentary on Apple modem ramp timing could reset FY27 handset assumptions.
Options Hedging Signal
Far-dated put/call ratios spike to 7.01 on October and 7.52 on November expirations, indicating institutional hedging well beyond earnings volatility.
Tax Rate Under CAMT
Corporate alternative minimum tax kicked in fiscal 2026, with effective rate guided to 13-14% after a $5.7B non-cash charge. Any true-up commentary swings GAAP EPS.
CFO Selling Cadence
CFO Palkhiwala disposed 7,952 shares across 46 transactions since May, plus CEO Amon’s 20,000 shares in May near $180-$185. Systematic, but the pace bears watching against tonight’s guide.
Prediction Markets See an 86% Probability QCOM Beats Earnings Tonight
Heading into tonight’s report, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) prediction markets are pricing a beat as the base case, though conviction has softened. Polymarket’s earnings market currently assigns a 85.7% probability to a beat, backed by $26,564 in total volume.
The odds have swung notably. Traders priced Yes at 90.5% on July 27 before slipping to 70.7% on July 29 as volume surged past $53,000.
On QCT chip revenue, the crowd gives 62.5% odds above $8.00B but only 9.0% above $8.50B, suggesting a print near the low end of guidance.
Historical accuracy backs the bullish lean: Qualcomm has beaten EPS 8 consecutive quarters, with recent surprises ranging 1.06% to 14.05%.
Qualcomm Pre-Earnings: Key Metrics Every Investor Should Know Before the Report
With Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) reporting after the close, here is what to keep an eye on.
Consensus and Guidance
Street consensus sits at $2.23 non-GAAP EPS, inside Qualcomm’s own guide of $2.10 to $2.30 on revenue of $9.2B to $10.0B.
KPIs to Watch
- QCT Handsets, last at $6.024 billion (-13% YoY)
- Automotive holding the $1.326 billion record
- QTL EBT margin near 72%
Price and Positioning
Shares trade at $162.26, down 14% over one month. The 7/31 chain skews bullish with 17,903 call volume versus 13,109 puts. Polymarket’s beat odds slid to 0.707.
Move Triggers
Revenue above $10.0B with EPS topping $2.30 signals memory headwinds are easing; results under the low end could reset the diversification thesis.
Analysts Top 5 Questions for Qualcomm Ahead of Tonight's Q3 Earnings
With Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) trading at $162.26 and Polymarket pricing an 85.7% beat probability, here’s what to listen for on tonight’s call.
Top 5 Analyst Questions
- Is Q3 truly the trough for Chinese handset revenue, with sequential growth returning in Q4 FY26?
- How durable is the +38% YoY automotive momentum beyond the record $1.33B quarter?
- Any update on hyperscaler custom silicon shipments slated for late calendar 2026?
- When do memory supply constraints ease?
- Progress on fiscal 2029 revenue goals post Alphawave integration?
Key Topics and Buzzwords
- Listen for “edge AI,” “physical AI,” “AI agents,” “diversification,” and data center milestones.
Red Flags
- QCT below the $7.9B low end, softer QTL commentary, or delayed hyperscaler shipments. Also watch the 65 insider transactions tilted toward selling.
Investors Will Be Looking for Strong Q4 Guidance From Qualcomm Tonight
Qualcomm heads into earnings with memory supply constraints and weaker Chinese handset demand expected to make Q3 the trough for QCT revenue. Investors will focus on whether management can confidently call an inflection from here.
Automotive revenue reached a record last quarter and grew 38%, making the durability of that momentum a major swing factor. Qualcomm’s diversification story also depends on tangible progress from hyperscaler custom silicon shipments and its integration of Alphawave.
The stock trades at a forward P/E near 15, reflecting persistent concerns about handset cyclicality and customer concentration. Confirmation of a Q3 trough, paired with concrete data center milestones, could push investors toward the diversification thesis.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the close tonight at 4:00 PM ET. CEO Cristiano Amon guided for this quarter to be the bottom for Chinese handset revenue, so this report anchors the recovery timeline.
The Backdrop: Trough Quarter, Recovery Thesis
Last quarter, revenue landed at $10.60B, down 3.46% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.65 beating by 3.67%. Handsets fell 13% to $6.02B due to memory pressure and weakness in Chinese OEMs. Automotive offset with a record $1.33B, up 38%.
Shares sit at $159.64, down 14% over the past month and 6.12% over the past week. Amon called the memory environment “challenging” while flagging hyperscaler custom silicon shipments later this calendar year. Capital return remained aggressive with $2.8B in buybacks, $945M in dividends, plus a new $20B repurchase authorization.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q3 FY26 Guide | YoY at Midpoint | Q3 FY25 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.2B-$10.0B | ~-7% | $10.365B |
| QCT Revenue | $7.9B-$8.5B | -9% to -3% | $8.993B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $2.10-$2.30 | ~-21% | $2.77 |
The guide reflects a deliberate step down from the FY25 pace. Polymarket implies a 70.7% probability of an EPS beat, with the crowd assigning 62.5% odds to QCT revenue clearing $8.00B and only 37.5% to $9.00B.
What We’re Watching: Data Center Debut Meets China Bottom
Tonight, I’ll be watching how CEO Amon frames the hyperscaler’s custom-silicon ramp. Management said initial shipments are on track for later in this calendar year, and any pull-in or slip could materially affect the FY27 setup. The Alphawave Semi acquisition now sits inside the Data Center segment, so analysts will be looking for an early read on contribution and margin profile.
Investors will also focus on the Chinese handset trajectory. Company guidance flagged Q3 as the bottom with sequential growth returning in Q4. I’ll also track automotive to see whether the +38% pace holds or moderates toward the 15-20% band seen in earlier quarters.
Margins deserve close attention. Operating income fell 26% YoY last quarter, even as the top line held. Memory pricing pass-through and mix shift toward automotive and IoT will determine whether operating leverage returns in FY27. Finally, investors will be looking for any insights on AI agents and the physical AI platform teased at the June 24, 2026 Investor Day.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-of Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY26 | +3.67% | +15.12% | +12.79% | +34.11% |
| Q1 FY26 | +2.87% | -8.46% | +1.59% | -0.81% |
| Q4 FY25 | +4.53% | -3.63% | +0.75% | +1.62% |
| Q3 FY25 | +2.05% | -7.73% | -0.59% | +8.19% |
On average, shares moved +4.37% one week after earnings among recent beats.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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