Tesla is having a July to forget, and Cathie Wood is taking the other side of the trade. With the stock in near freefall since its Q2 earnings miss, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) closed Wednesday at $298.32, down 27.56% in the past month and 33.67% year to date.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $381.33, implying 27.82% upside, and we rate the stock a buy with high confidence at 90%. Wood looks directionally right.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $298.32 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $381.33 |
| Upside | 27.82% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
How Tesla Got to Its Worst July
The selloff traces to the July 22 Q2 report. Revenue of $28.24 billion beat by 7.1% on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, but non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus by 38.51%.
Operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, free cash flow swung to negative $1.09 billion, and OpEx jumped 47% as AI infrastructure and Optimus buildout pressured the P&L. Shares have since given up 20.24% in a single week, trading within a dollar of its 52-week low of $297.82.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead
Wood’s dip-buying reflects a legitimate operating story beneath Q2’s ugly EPS. FSD subscriptions hit 1.48 million, up 56%, with a 55% attach rate on new North American deliveries. Robotaxi expanded to seven US metros, Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, and cash climbed to $43.52 billion, up 179% year over year.
The Street’s consensus target sits at $399.45, and our bull case models a $463.24 one-year target if Optimus and Robotaxi monetization accelerate. ARK has framed Tesla primarily as an AI and autonomy platform.
What Could Go Wrong
The bear case starts with valuation. Even after the selloff, Tesla trades at a 171x implied forward P/E, and Q2’s $5.79 billion in capex means free cash flow stays stressed. Reddit sentiment turned bearish post-earnings, with r/stocks scoring between 28 and 38. Polymarket assigns just a 15.5% probability to an Optimus release by year-end.
Our bear case pegs the one-year floor at $344.21. Bulls counter that margin compression reflects heavy investment spending, and the 50% Services growth suggests the software flywheel is real.
How Tesla Compares to General Motors and Rivian
General Motors (NYSE: GM) offers a valuation contrast. GM trades near $89 with a P/E of 30 and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $12 to $14, implying a forward P/E of roughly 7. That fraction of Tesla’s multiple makes our $381.33 target look aggressive on legacy-auto math but reasonable if you underwrite Tesla’s AI segments.
Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is the growth-stage EV counterpoint. Rivian posted Q1 2026 revenue of $1.38 billion, up 11.4%, with software and services growing 49% on the Volkswagen JV, but burned $1.08 billion in free cash flow. Compared to Tesla’s $43.52 billion cash pile and profitable auto segment, Tesla looks like the safer EV bet.
| Company | P/E | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 311 | $1.18T |
| General Motors | 30 | $80.9B |
| Rivian | N/M (unprofitable) | $23.6B |
The Bottom Line at $298
Wood is on the right side of this trade. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $381.33 implies 27.82% upside with 90% confidence, and Tesla trades within a dollar of its 52-week low. The bull thesis rests on whether FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus produce meaningful revenue by 2027.
The bear thesis hinges on whether the $25 billion capital budget destroys returns before the AI story arrives. On balance, the risk-reward at $298 skews constructive.
Extending our price target model at a 15.31% base-case annualized trajectory:
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $345 |
| 2027 | $381 |
| 2028 | $460 |
| 2029 | $530 |
| 2030 | $608 |
These projections assume Tesla executes on Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD monetization. Significant upside or downside could result from autonomy regulation or a slower Optimus ramp.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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