Arm (NASDAQ:ARM | ARM Price Prediction) has room to run despite recent pullback. Arm trades at $224.89 after a -20.65% week and -34.55% month, yet remains up 105.74% year to date. The story is Arm’s rising share inside every hyperscaler AI stack.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $224.89 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $289.64 |
| Upside | 18.35% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Arm is $289.64, implying 18.35% upside over the next 12 months. Our conviction is high at 90% confidence, and we rate the shares a buy.
A Sharp Pullback Meets a Blowout Franchise
Arm filed Q1 FY27 on July 29, 2026. Revenue of $1.289 billion grew 22.41% and beat consensus by 1.70%, but GAAP EPS of $0.25 missed the $0.4038 estimate by 38.09%.
Operating expenses climbed 28%, R&D hit $838 million, and share-based comp reached $343 million. License revenue rose 23% to $574 million, royalties 22% to $715 million. Shares sit 34% from the 52-week high of $452.70.
The Case for $430 and Higher
Our bull case tags Arm at $430.26, a 75.8% return. Data center is the engine. CEO Rene Haas called out “more than $2 billion in customer demand” for Arm AGI CPU across FY27-FY28, with management tracking toward a $15 billion silicon business against a $100 billion data center CPU TAM by 2030.
Hyperscaler CPU share is projected at nearly 50% this year versus 18% a year ago, powered by NVIDIA Grace Blackwell, AWS Graviton, Google Axion, and Microsoft Cobalt. Meta signed on as multi-generation co-developer. The sell-side consensus target sits at $302.65 with 7 strong buys and 20 buys.
What Could Go Wrong
Our bear case lands at $229.75, essentially flat. Trailing P/E of 313 and forward P/E of 120 leave zero room for stumbles. Operating margin compressed to 7% from 11% YoY. The Qualcomm trial is expected in Q4 2026 with a Third Circuit appeal pending.
Add US export controls, a 25% semi tariff, and SoftBank’s controlling stake. Bulls counter that margin compression reflects deliberate R&D and SBC investment tied to the AGI CPU launch, and that Q1 operating cash flow of $902 million shows the model is intact.
How Arm Compares to NVIDIA and Qualcomm
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is the natural partner comp: its Grace Blackwell and forthcoming Vera CPU both use Arm cores, so every NVIDIA data center win pulls royalties for Arm. NVIDIA’s scale makes Arm’s forward P/E of 120 look aggressive on absolute terms, but Arm’s royalty leverage on NVIDIA volume is why our target sits above spot.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is the direct competitor and litigation counterparty. Qualcomm trades on a fraction of Arm’s multiple. But Qualcomm has no data center CPU franchise comparable to what Arm is building with Meta, Google, and Microsoft. That gap is why we view Arm’s premium as earned, and it keeps our 24/7 Wall St. price target at $289.64 looking reasonable rather than heroic.
Arm Price Prediction 2026-2030
The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $289.64, a buy, at 90% confidence. The tipping factor is Arm’s hyperscaler share trajectory.
I’d be a buyer here if AGI CPU volumes ramp on schedule into calendar year-end. I’d stay on the sidelines if the Qualcomm ruling goes against Arm or if royalty growth slows below 20%. The recent pullback improved the entry.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $289.64 |
| 2027 | $322 |
| 2028 | $358 |
| 2029 | $385 |
| 2030 | $413.83 |
These projections assume Arm executes on the AGI CPU roadmap and royalty rates continue climbing toward north of 10% per chip. Significant upside or downside could result from the Qualcomm outcome or a change in hyperscaler CapEx.
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