Top Consumer Specialist Says U.S. Spending Is “Very Healthy.” These 4 Trends Are Producing Outsized Winners

Speaking on CNBC on August 3, Martin Dorfi, Founder and Managing Partner at consumer investment firm Beliade, laid out why he has a bullish view on U.S. consumer health despite gloomier sentiment surveys. “The U.S. consumer is very healthy. We’re seeing broad-based growth across our portfolio of brands, largely in the health and wellness sector,“ he told viewers.

Several economic indicators support Dorfi’s thesis. Retail sales reached $768.6 billion in June 2026, placing them in the 90.9th percentile of their trailing 12-month range. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, down from 4.5% in November 2025, while credit card delinquencies remained within the Federal Reserve’s normalizing zone at 2.92%. Per capita disposable personal income also increased to $68,958 in the second quarter, up from $66,669 one year earlier.

Yet the data contains a striking contradiction. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.5 in June, well below the neutral zone. Americans may feel pessimistic, but they continue spending, partly by allowing the personal savings rate to fall from 5.0% to 2.8% over the past year.

The Four Consumer Trends Producing Outsized Winners

Dorfi credited female purchasing decisions for the outperformance in his portfolio. “Female head of household is controlling a lot of the purchasing decisions. They’re shopping healthier for their kids. They [want] more transparent ingredients. We’re seeing like 30, 40% top line growth in a lot of our funds,” he said.

Dorfi framed the broader secular theme he’s riding: “Undeniable health and wellness and longevity… that’s a sector that we see across a lot of different consumer categories. Made in America businesses are something that consumers [are] appreciating more, the premiumization of brands.”

Dorfi gives investors four clear consumer trends to identify brands that could become consumer winners. He’s looking for brands that:

1. Resonate with female household decision-makers
2. Emphasize healthier products and transparent ingredients
3. Capitalize on rising interest in Made-in-America products
4. Offer premium brands that consumers are willing to pay more for

Why Relatable Brands Could Reopen the IPO Market

Dorfi’s investment firm, Beliade, underwrites private businesses with $300-400 million in top-line revenue before an exit via IPO or strategic sale. Dorfi pointed to two consumer IPOs last week, with Reformation debuting 8% above its IPO price, as a signal that the window is opening.

He also flagged that the SEC Chairman is discussing an environment that would encourage more consumer IPOs, a structural tailwind for firms like Beliade that want to see their portfolio companies reach the public markets as a liquidity event. “I think the younger investor, this modern investor, wants more investments in stock picks that are very relatable, that are brands that they shop,” Dorfi said. Paul Atkins, the SEC Chairman, has previously said he’s making a push to “make IPOs great again.”

What Investors Should Watch

Dorfi’s framework gives investors a clear checklist for finding potential consumer winners: brands that resonate with female household decision-makers, emphasize transparent ingredients, benefit from Made-in-America positioning, and possess pricing power in premium categories.

The next major test will come from the consumer IPO pipeline. If future listings can replicate Reformation’s 8% debut gain, it would support Dorfi’s view that public-market investors want relatable brands they already know and use.

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