On CNBC’s Squawk on the Street this morning, Jim Cramer laid out a two-sided view of SpaceX in the wake of the company’s first post-IPO earnings report. He’s bullish on the trillion-dollar revenue thesis by 2030, but he’s cautious about the near-term headwinds likely to hit the stock as soon as tomorrow. SpaceX reported a 92% jump in quarterly revenue and beat earnings estimates, but shares fell sharply after the call.
Cramer’s framing was direct: “I’m positive on the stock long term. I don’t think short term. Short term, forget about it. That’s why I said it’s 2030 stuff. If it does $1 trillion.” That timeline matches management’s own guidance. Elon Musk told investors, “We are expecting to reach $100 billion plus ARR in December of this year.” Additionally, SpaceX is moving up its $1 trillion revenue target from 2031 to 2030, with a small chance of reaching it in 2029.
$100 Billion in SpaceX Shares Could Hit the Market Tomorrow
What’s driving Cramer’s near-term caution for SpaceX is the August 6th share unlock, where about $100 billion in shares will become tradable. Cramer’s take on why the stock sold off is that: “I think it’s the huge number of shares that are coming. You know, the lockup.”
SpaceX’s capex plan is built on gigawatt-scale AI compute, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) is the exclusive silicon partner underpinning that buildout. NVIDIA’s most recent quarter showed $253.49 billion in trailing revenue and a forward P/E of 23, with data center revenue in Q1 FY2027 hitting $75.25 billion, up 92% year over year, per the company’s Q1 FY2027 filing.
NVIDIA Holds the Keys to SpaceX’s AI Buildout
NVIDIA shares are up 13.78% year to date and trading at $220.74 intraday.
Prediction markets echo Cramer’s split view on NVIDIA. The composite sentiment score sits at 47.08 (Neutral), with a 7-day change of -18.08 points, though crowd probability that NVDA closes above $200 today stands at 96.8%.
SpaceX Could Soon Spend as Much on Capex as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet
David Faber walked through the capex numbers analysts are penciling in for SpaceX: “Morgan Stanley is now at $163 billion. JP Morgan is at $196 billion. That gets them right up there with the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon in capex. Except that they’re going to have to raise a lot of money.” SpaceX itself is planning 10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity, versus a street estimate of 4.5 gigawatts, and is targeting a $100+ billion ARR by December 2026.
The financing question is where Cramer leans on Musk’s history. “He always manages to raise money. He did with Tesla. There’s nobody better,” Cramer said. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) itself put $2 billion of equity into SpaceX per its Q1 FY2026 filing and is building a semiconductor fab with SpaceX at Gigafactory Texas.
Tesla’s $2 Billion Bet Ties Musk’s Empires Together
Tesla shares are down 27.21% year-to-date, with the stock trading around $322. Q2 FY2026 revenue was $28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year, but non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.33 versus an estimated $0.54, missing expectations, with free cash flow of $1.09 billion. Tesla trades at a forward P/E of 169.
Prediction markets assign only a 17.5% probability to a Tesla-SpaceX merger being announced by December 31, and a 5.7% probability that Musk exits as Tesla CEO before 2027.
What To Watch
Cramer’s long-term thesis still points toward 2030 and the possibility of a $1 trillion revenue business. Getting there will require Musk to repeat the playbook he used at Tesla, where he raised an extraordinary amount of capital and turned an ambitious technological vision into a commercially viable business.
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