Live: Will Trade Desk’s Q2 Earnings Tonight Reset Its 80% Selloff?

That wraps up our initial coverage of The Trade Desk’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Management guided for Q3 revenue of at least $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $160 million, implying a sequential decline from Q2’s $715.06 million.

Bulls had been modeling for The Trade Desk to see guidance of roughly $800 million for Q3.

This marks the second consecutive guide-down, with the company missing May’s Q2 floor of $750 million.

Key assumptions: marketer caution in a “complex environment” and a full C-suite reset spanning CFO, CMO, and Chief Commercial Officer roles.

Ad-tech peers moved the opposite direction. Magnite raised full-year contribution ex-TAC growth to 13%-14% and EBITDA margin to at least 37%.

Additionally, Alphabet’s Search ads grew 17%, which suggests that The Trade Desk isn’t capturing growing budgets.

Bear Case Validated or Busted?

Four pre-earnings bear concerns dominated the 80.27% one-year drawdown:

• Growth deceleration: Validated. Revenue grew just 3.03% YoY, down from 19% a year ago.
• Margin compression: Validated. Adjusted EBITDA margin slid to 34% from 39%.
• Competitive pressure: Validated. Jeff Green cited a “complex environment” for marketers.
• Execution risk: Validated by a sweeping CFO, CMO, Chief Commercial, and Chief Business Development reset.

Bears will argue Q3 revenue guidance of at least $650 million implies a sequential decline.

Bulls might argue that there are signs of life at TTD, including 95%+ retention, $1.122 billion in cash, insider buying across 33 transactions, and marquee wins with Netflix, Databricks, and Adobe.

Trade Desk highlighted several major partnerships that could support its longer-term recovery, even as second-quarter results fell short of expectations.

Netflix joined the company’s Sellers and Publishers 500+ marketplace, while Samsung Ads opened premium home-screen inventory to programmatic buyers through Trade Desk and other launch partners.

The company also expanded its commerce-media ecosystem through integrations with Booking.com, Marriott, Uber, United Airlines, and other travel brands.

Customer retention remained above 95% for the quarter, extending a streak that has lasted more than a decade.

The Trade Desk expects third-quarter revenue of at least $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $160 million.

That outlook implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 25%, well below the 34% margin delivered during the second quarter of last year.

The guidance adds to concerns surrounding slowing growth and deteriorating operating leverage. Trade Desk’s second-quarter revenue rose only 3%, while adjusted EBITDA declined 11% and non-GAAP EPS fell from $0.41 to $0.34.

CEO Jeff Green acknowledged that the quarter “did not meet the standard we set for ourselves” and said the company is taking decisive action to improve execution.

The Trade Desk just reported earnings, with shares initially down 11% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $715.1 million vs. $751.4 million expected
• Adjusted EPS: $0.34 vs. $0.40 expected

Quick Read:

Trade Desk missed revenue estimates by roughly 5%, while adjusted EPS fell 15% short of expectations.

Revenue increased just 3% year over year, while EPS declined 17%, reinforcing concerns that the company’s growth engine remains under pressure.

CEO Jeff Green typically guides conservatively, then beats by low single digits.

Consensus estimates for tonight sit at $751.5 million in revenue and $0.4006 EPS, roughly in line with the $750 million floor Trade Desk issued in May.

The bar for Q3: revenue guidance above $800 million would signal reacceleration from Q1’s 11.8% YoY pace, and an adjusted EBITDA margin path back toward 40% from 30% would validate a recovery thesis.

Bearish scenario: a Q3 guide flat with Q2, cautious language on advertiser spend, or any softening of the 95%+ retention streak.

Given the Q2 2025 precedent, where a -0.92% miss triggered a -38.61% single-day drop, it’s likely we’ll see the company’s guidance drive the stock’s reaction to tonight’s earnings.

Three programmatic ad-tech peers have reported ahead of Trade Desk this earnings season, and all three beat on revenue: Magnite (NASDAQ:MGNI) by 7.54%, Viant Technology (NASDAQ:DSP) by 4.40%, and PubMatic (NASDAQ:PUBM) by 3.95%. EPS was mixed, with Magnite missing by 1.1%.

Common threads: CTV drove growth (Magnite CTV contribution ex-TAC rose 36% year-over-year), agentic AI platforms expanded, and sell-side margins widened (Magnite adjusted EBITDA margin reached 37%).

Magnite raised full-year contribution ex-TAC growth to 13%-14%, and shares climbed 23.76% over the past week.

Implication for Trade Desk: Demand looks healthy enough to support the $750 million guidance. Watch adjusted EBITDA margin recovery from 30% and Koa Agents traction.

The Trade Desk reports second-quarter 2026 earnings after the closing bell today at 4:00 PM ET, with management guiding for revenue of at least $750 million.

Prediction markets remain skeptical, as Polymarket traders assign only a 34.5% probability that the company beats consensus estimates.

Shares have fallen 80.10% over the past year, dramatically resetting the company’s once-premium valuation.

This report could either validate the reset thesis or deepen the selloff. Wall Street’s average target sits at $24.32, with 13 Buy ratings and four Sells, while prediction markets lean bearish.

A clean beat against the $750 million guide and a sharp margin recovery could reframe the outlook.