The Trade Desk Tops Q4 Estimates but Tumbles as Weak Q1 Guidance Spooks Investors

Investors were watching whether Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) could hold its revenue growth rate in the high teens, the one number flagged as the test that would define the stock’s trajectory after a 66% decline over the past year. The company delivered a narrow Q4 beat on the top line, but soft Q1 guidance sent shares tumbling in premarket trading, extending a punishing stretch for shareholders.

Beat on Q4, Miss on the Outlook

Q4 revenue came in slightly above management’s own guidance of at least $840 million, up approximately 14% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at approximately 47%, beating expectations by a comfortable margin. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.59 was roughly in line with the $0.57 consensus. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 18% year over year.

But the forward view is where the story breaks. Q1 2026 revenue guidance came in about 1.5% below analyst estimates and implies roughly 10% year-over-year growth, a meaningful deceleration from the mid-to-high teens pace we were tracking. Near-term EBITDA guidance also fell short of Street expectations, suggesting near-term margin pressure ahead.

Green Acknowledges Headwinds, Stays on Offense

CEO Jeff Green struck a candid tone on the earnings call. He pointed to softness in consumer packaged goods and automotive verticals, acknowledging uncertainty in those categories not seen in over a decade. He also acknowledged this was not the company’s best earnings report. But Green leaned into the competitive narrative, emphasizing The Trade Desk’s objectivity as a platform that does not own ad inventory as a key differentiator as supply grows.

Loop Capital downgraded the stock to Hold with a significantly reduced price target, estimating that CPG and auto weakness alone shaved at least five points off growth. The Trade Desk board authorized an additional share repurchase program, bringing the total remaining capacity to $500 million.

What to Watch From Here

As previously noted, the growth rate was the signal that mattered. At approximately 14% in Q4 and guiding to 10% in Q1, the deceleration narrative has taken hold. Analyst price target revisions and whether the premarket move holds through the session will be key data points to follow.