We Said These 4 Dividend Aristocrats Could Soar. Here’s How They Did, Plus 3 New Picks.

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By Trey Thoelcke Published

Quick Read

  • ABBV surged 47% and BDX gained 26% over the past year, both decisively beating the market as their overlooked dividend growth drove outsized returns.

  • All four original picks kept raising dividends regardless of price, with PG marking its 70th consecutive year of increases and BF-A its 82nd.

  • ALB, MDT, and SWK offer cyclical, defensive, and industrial dividend plays, each with dramatically improved free cash flow coverage heading into fiscal 2027.

  • Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and P&G didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

We Said These 4 Dividend Aristocrats Could Soar. Here’s How They Did, Plus 3 New Picks.

© 24/7 Wall St.

About a year ago, 24/7 Wall St. flagged four overlooked Dividend Aristocrats as stealth growth plays, arguing that boring income names carried real upside if the market ever noticed. The scorecard is in, and it is split down the middle. Two of the four beat the market decisively, while the other two lagged. Below is a candid grading of the original quartet, plus three fresh Aristocrat-caliber income names where the setup looks compelling now.

Becton Dickinson: A Late Rally Salvages the Call

Becton Dickinson (NYSE:BDX | BDX Price Prediction) was the toughest call of the original four, and it finally worked. Shares gained 25.5% in the past year and are up 17.47% year to date after a 9.1% one-week pop to $176.86.

The dividend engine still hums. Becton Dickinson pays a quarterly $1.05, with an annualized forward payout of $4.20, and the current yield is 2.4% against a forward P/E of 13. Coverage is not an issue: year-to-date free cash flow of $1.73 billion, up 44.6% year over year, comfortably funds the payout, and management raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.62 to $12.72. The main risk is the tariff overhang and $450 million in non-cash impairment charges tied to strategic exits.

Grade: B+. A solid double for income holders who reinvested.

AbbVie: The Home Run of the Group

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) was the star. Shares are up 47.4% over the trailing year and 16.7% year to date, closing at $246.04 on August 7. The immunology franchise did exactly what bulls hoped, with Skyrizi +24.4% and Rinvoq +24.5% more than offsetting Humira’s biosimilar-driven decline.

The dividend, currently $1.73 quarterly for an annualized forward $6.92, keeps grinding higher, and the yield stands at 2.8%. Safety metrics: free cash flow yield of 4.10%, interest coverage of 6.94x, and net debt/EBITDA of 2.26x. Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.65 beat the consensus estimate on $16.99 billion in revenue, +10.2% year over year. The trailing P/E of 69 reflects heavy amortization; the forward EPS guide of $13.87 to $14.07 normalizes the multiple considerably. Risk: continued Humira erosion and dilution from the $10.9 billion Apogee Therapeutics acquisition.

Grade: A. Nearly reached the aspirational analyst target.

Procter & Gamble: A Miss on Growth, Not on Income

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) was the disappointment of the group on price, down 9.2% from a year ago. However, shares finished at $145.79, up 4.0% year to date. Q4 FY26 revenue of $21.20 billion missed the $21.38 billion estimate, and the FY27 outlook of organic sales +1% to +3% with core EPS of $6.89 to $7.11 is workmanlike, not exciting.

For income buyers, however, this is still one of the safest checks in the market. The current quarterly payout is $1.0885, with an annualized forward payout of $4.354. Management just marked its 70th consecutive year of dividend increases and 136th consecutive year of dividend payments, cementing Dividend King status. FY26 free cash flow hit $15.835 billion, +12.74% year over year, and FY27 plans call for roughly $10 billion in dividends plus $5 billion in buybacks. Risks include a roughly $1 billion after-tax commodity and transport headwind in FY27.

Grade: C on price, A on income durability.

Brown-Forman: A Genuine Laggard

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF-A) was the clearest miss, −1.5% year on year, as spirits demand cooled in developed markets. Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS of $0.12 missed the $0.32 estimate after $132 million in non-cash brand impairments on Gin Mare and Diplomático.

The income case, however, is nearly untouchable. Brown-Forman logged its 82nd consecutive year of regular quarterly dividends and 42nd consecutive year of dividend increases, keeping it deep on the Aristocrat list. The Q4 FY26 payout of $0.2310 per share is well covered by FY26 free cash flow of $893 million, which was up 107% year over year. FY27 organic operating income was guided to −3% to −5%, and Citigroup bumped up its price target to $28 but kept a Neutral rating. The risks here are Jack Daniel’s volume softness and tariff exposure.

Grade: D on price, A on streak.

The New Picks

Rounding out this update are three fresh Aristocrat-caliber names spanning cyclical, defensive, and industrial exposures. All three offer improving dividend coverage this fiscal year.

Albemarle: A Contrarian Aristocrat With Cyclical Torque

Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) is the highest-conviction contrarian pick. The lithium producer has ripped 50.4% over the past year to $131.11, yet remains down 12.8% year to date and off 45.6% over five years. Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.75 beat by 15.72% on revenue of $1.74 billion (+31.1% year over year), with realized lithium prices recovering to $19.53/kg LCE from $12.17/kg.

Dividend safety is the debate. Free cash flow surged to $638 million in Q2, up 603% year over year, and cash stands at $1.63 billion against $10.28 billion of equity, with FY26 capex trimmed to roughly $500 million. That combination gives the payout runway even if lithium slips again. The bull case: operating leverage. Energy Storage revenue was +78% year over year at $1.28 billion with a 56.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. Risk: extreme lithium price sensitivity, plus operational hiccups including the Talison CGP3 fire and Kemerton Train 1 in care and maintenance.

ALB analyst ratings
ALB price target

Medtronic: The Clean Analyst Buy of the Bunch

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) offers the cleanest income setup here. Shares closed at $87.16, down 8.9% year to date but up 3.3% in the past month, with a low beta of 0.566. The current yield is 3.31%, backed by a $0.72 quarterly payout, an annualized forward $2.88. Management just marked its 49th consecutive year of dividend increases, one of the longest-running streaks in medical devices.

Coverage is the story. FY26 free cash flow was $5.426 billion (+4.65%) on $7.33 billion in operating cash flow, funding both the dividend and $1.035 billion in FY26 buybacks. FY27 guidance calls for organic revenue growth of 6.75% to 7.25% and non-GAAP EPS of $5.90 to $6.00. The CEO highlighted the “strongest annual top-line growth in 10 years.” Analysts are constructive, with a $98.44 mean price target. Risks include 230 basis points of Q4 operating-margin compression from tariffs and MiniMed separation costs.

MDT analyst ratings
MDT price target

Stanley Black & Decker: The Industrial Turnaround

Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) rounds out the list as the industrial turnaround. Shares are up 27.4% year to date and 35.1% over the past year, closing at $103.89. Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.57 beat $1.20 by 30.4%, and FY26 adjusted EPS guidance was lifted to $5.20 to $5.80.

The dividend just ticked higher, from $0.83 to $0.84 quarterly, taking the annualized forward to $3.36 at a yield of 3.2%. This is a well-documented multi-decade dividend grower. Coverage improved dramatically: Q2 free cash flow of $698.2 million, up 418%, and FY26 FCF guidance of $600 million to $800 million. Management also retired $1.7 billion of debt using CAM divestiture proceeds and repurchased $250 million in Q2. Analyst target stands at $96.91, so the easy money may be behind us, but the payout runway keeps widening. Note that roughly 250 basis points of Q2 gross margin came from a non-repeatable IEEPA tariff refund worth ~$0.17 in EPS.

SWK analyst ratings
SWK price target

The Takeaway

The scorecard on the original four Aristocrats was two winners (AbbVie, Becton Dickinson), two laggards (Procter & Gamble, Brown-Forman) on price, though all four kept raising dividends on schedule. That is the point of owning Aristocrats: the income compounds regardless of what the multiple does in a given twelve months. Albemarle, Medtronic, and Stanley Black & Decker each offer a different flavor of the same trade, a cyclical rebound, a defensive compounder, and an industrial turnaround, with dividend coverage that has visibly improved this fiscal year.

 

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.

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