Cisco Q4 Earnings Are Out – Stock Jumps 3% on Results

That wraps up our initial coverage of Cisco’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Management’s beat-and-raise cadence has set a high bar. FY26 revenue guidance climbed from $59.0B-$60.0B last August to $62.8B-$63.0B today, with non-GAAP EPS lifted from $4.00-$4.06 to $4.27-$4.29.

Every quarter of FY26 brought a raise, and consensus now embeds that pattern.

Beyond CFO Mark Patterson’s “at least $6 billion” AI hyperscale revenue signal for FY27, investors want a Q1 print topping the $16.70B-$16.90B Q4 range, gross margin defended inside the 65.5%-66.5% corridor, and RPO reaccelerating from +4%.

Bullish: AI order target lifted above $9B with non-hyperscaler orders sustaining +19%.

Bearish: a flat AI framing plus Q4 restructuring charges above $450 million.

With shares up 58.6% YTD and a P/E near 40, the Q4 beat is largely priced in. The FY27 outlook is what moves the stock.

Management has raised FY26 guidance every quarter, a pattern of conservative initial guides followed by upward revisions.

CFO Mark Patterson already flagged that “it’s reasonable to expect we will recognize at least $6 billion of revenue in FY ’27” from AI hyperscale, up from $4.0 billion in FY26.

• Bullish scenario: an AI order target lifted beyond $9 billion, gross margin held at 66%, and FY27 revenue above consensus.
• Bearish scenario: an in-line FY27 guide, hyperscaler order deceleration, or accelerating margin compression from AI hardware mix.

Security and Splunk cloud commentary will also shape the stock’s reaction.

With Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) reporting after the bell, here’s what to listen for on tonight’s call.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

1. Will the $9.0B AI infrastructure order target convert to durable revenue, or is it front-loaded hyperscaler buildout?
2. How will the up to $1.0B restructuring charge phase across Q4 and FY2027?
3. Why did operating cash flow fall 7.39% while capex jumped 58.62%?
4. When does Security reaccelerate given Fortinet’s guidance raise?
5. Initial FY2027 revenue and EPS framework?

Key Topics & Buzzwords

• Listen for “architectural shift,” “silicon and optics,” “sovereign AI,” and RPO growth.
• Campus refresh cycle durability after >25% order growth.

Red Flags

• Gross margin below the 65.5%-66.5% range.
• Hyperscaler concentration disclosures or tariff-driven guidance cuts.
• Insider selling continued alongside institutional trimming.

Cisco enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report with AI hyperscaler orders on track to reach a newly raised $9 billion fiscal 2026 target.

The quarter should also provide investors with their first indication of whether that momentum can continue into fiscal 2027.

The company has emerged as a credible AI infrastructure play, helping shares climb over 60% year to date.

Polymarket traders now assign Cisco a 96.1% probability of beating earnings expectations, setting a high bar for the report.

Investors should watch whether surging AI hyperscaler demand can offset pressure from Cisco’s increasingly hardware-heavy revenue mix. Gross margins have stabilized near 66%, but faster hardware growth could weigh on the profitability narrative.