A 206% run over the past year leaves Coherent with no room for a soft datacenter quarter, and the after-close report lands with the stock already priced for the AI transceiver ramp. Reactions have swung violently either way, from a 19.6% drop after Q4 2025 to an 18.3% jump after Q1 2026, so the guide matters more than the quarter.
What to watch
Whether datacenter and communications holds above 75% of total revenue
800G and 1.6T transceiver ramp commentary and capacity additions
Gross margin trajectory as the mix shifts toward datacenter
Silicon carbide business updates after the strategic review
May's fiscal third quarter showed Coherent can clear the bar on both lines, yet the stock sold off that day as investors set a higher bar for a name riding a datacenter mix shift. That leaves tonight's report needing upside on transceiver-driven guidance to justify the run.
Price since the report
Reported Wed, May 6 · next print Wed, Aug 12
Traders Are Slightly Bullish on COHR's Q4 Earnings with 0.84 Put/Call Ratio
At-the-money implied volatility of 162.5% into Friday expiration says the options market expects Coherent's earnings report to move the stock hard in either direction. The 0.84 put/call ratio leans slightly toward calls, which reads as traders positioned for upside, though a call-heavy skew ahead of a catalyst can just as easily mark crowded optimism that unwinds on anything short of a beat. Open interest clusters at the 325 and 335 strikes frame the range being defended.
Open interest near the money · puts / calls
$325
369 / 125
$327.5
84 / 44
$330
234 / 287
$332.5
69 / 52
$335
326 / 258
$337.5
26 / 68
Coherent's Peers Crushed Earnings, Raising Expectations for Tonight
Live
Three AI-optical peers have reported this cycle, and all three beat consensus on both lines.
Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE | LITE Price Prediction) delivered the standout, topping EPS by 8.79% with revenue up 109.34% YoY and guiding Q1 to $1.225B–$1.275B.
Delayed InP milestones, elevated restructuring, or fresh dilution
Consensus analyst price target: $394.62 with 17 buy ratings.
Coherent’s AI Revenue Now Extends Into 2028
Live
Coherent enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report with its datacenter and communications business generating 75% of total revenue, up dramatically from 41% on a pro forma basis one year ago.
Management previously guided for quarterly revenue between $1.91-$2.05 billion, with adjusted earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share.
However, with Coherent shares up 206.14% over the past year, investors might be expecting the business to blow past these targets.
Management has said fiscal 2027 growth should exceed fiscal 2026’s rate, supported by customer orders extending into calendar 2028.
That means guidance validating that outlook would keep Coherent’s AI photonics growth story firmly intact, while a softer forecast might shift attention toward the company’s capital requirements and $3.18 billion debt load.
Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) reports fiscal Q4 2026 results after the bell today at 4:05 PM ET. With the stock up 8.8% today in intraday trading at $356.50 and a fresh S&P 500 inclusion, this earnings report tests whether AI datacenter momentum can keep pace with elevated expectations.
Momentum Meets Execution Risk
Last quarter, Coherent posted revenue of $1.8056 billion, up 20.54% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.41, extending the beat streak to four consecutive quarters.
Non-GAAP gross margin expanded 105 basis points to 39.6%, while operating margin climbed to 20.3%. NVIDIA’s $2 billion equity investment reset the balance sheet, lifting cash to $3.0 billion and pulling leverage down to 0.5x. Sentiment has followed the numbers, with shares up 78.02% year to date.
Consensus Estimates
Metric
Q4 FY26 Guide
Q3 FY26 Actual
YoY Reference
Revenue
$1.91B to $2.05B
$1.806B
+20.5%
Non-GAAP EPS
$1.52 to $1.72
$1.41
+55% YoY
Gross Margin
39.0% to 41.0%
39.6%
+105 bps
The guidance midpoint implies sequential revenue growth and a step-up in EPS, with the gross margin range building toward the 42%+ Investor Day target.
Any number landing in the upper half continues the pattern management has established across FY26.
What I’m Watching: Capacity, CPO, and the NVIDIA Ramp
Tonight, I’ll be watching the InP capacity ramp closely. Management said it will hit the doubling target one quarter earlier than planned, and 6-inch wafers produce more than four times as many devices at less than half the cost compared with 3-inch wafers. That mechanic is central to the margin story.
Analysts will also watch the 1.6T transceiver ramp. CEO Jim Anderson called it “faster than what we would have thought, say, a year ago” and flagged it as “beneficial to gross margin.” Commentary on 800G durability into calendar year 2026 also matters.
Investors will also be tracking CPO commentary. Coherent sizes CPO as a $15 billion+ incremental addressable market, with initial scale-out revenue in the second half of the calendar year under the NVIDIA agreement. OCS revenue conversion after the resolved production bottleneck is the other datacenter tell.
The industrial line remains a counterweight after a 16.1% YoY decline. Anderson pointed to meaningful semiconductor capital equipment bookings, so any inflection here changes the mix conversation.
Earnings History
Quarter
EPS Surprise
Day-Of Move
1-Week Move
30-Day Move
Q3 FY26
+1.44%
-7.39%
+26.86%
+11.51%
Q2 FY26
+6.61%
-0.83%
+3.28%
+24.57%
Q1 FY26
+11.54%
+18.32%
-12.13%
+20.99%
Q4 FY25
-3.26%
-19.61%
-5.51%
+13.99%
On average, shares moved +4.83% seven days after earnings over the past year.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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