SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is up 5% to $140 midday Wednesday, and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) shares are up 3% to $17 ahead of tomorrow’s earnings release. Two separate, company-specific catalysts are driving the moves while the rest of the space complex trades quietly.
SPCX stock is rebounding after a 5% drop Tuesday, so today looks more like a snapback than a breakout. LUNR shares extend a run that has carried the stock into a Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for before market open Thursday.
Both stocks are moving on discrete catalysts, and peers across the space complex are little changed. That divergence is what makes today’s action worth watching for investors already positioned in either name.
SpaceX Rebounds on Starlink Launch and AI Bull Case
SpaceX launched 24 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Tuesday night, extending a constellation that ended Q2 2026 with 12 million subscribers. The fresh cadence reinforces the connectivity growth story that underpinned last week’s earnings report, which showed revenue of $7.81 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling year over year (YoY).
The larger driver may be a Morgan Stanley note from analyst Adam Jones carrying a $300 price target. Jones argues investors are underestimating SpaceX’s AI business, including the pending $60 billion acquisition of coding platform Cursor and neocloud data-center leasing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google.
Morgan Stanley sees Cursor’s annual revenue run rate climbing from $4 billion in June toward $33 billion by 2030. That framing recasts SPCX stock from a launch-and-satellite story into an AI infrastructure play, which helps explain the sharp reversal off Tuesday’s weakness.
The Polymarket odds line up with the price action. The August 12 up/down market for SPCX is pricing an 89% probability of a green day, and the $145 target level shows 75.5% conviction in the August 20, 2026 market.
Intuitive Machines Climbs Ahead of Earnings
Intuitive Machines reports its Q2 2026 results before the market opens on Thursday, August 13, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus estimate calls for a loss of $0.07 per share on $219 million in revenue. Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $39.70, though Zacks flags a Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of -12.9%, suggesting the model is not calling for a beat.
The recent run-up in LUNR shares traces to two catalysts. L3Harris Technologies (NYSE:LHX) selected Intuitive Machines for the Space Development Agency’s AMDT3 mission, disclosed August 4, and the company announced acquisitions of Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT on August 3.
Intuitive Machines closed Q1 2026 with a record $1.1 billion backlog, giving investors a visible pipeline heading into tomorrow’s report. Options positioning is skewed constructive, with a full-chain put/call ratio of 0.36 across LUNR contracts.
Space Complex Otherwise Quiet
SpaceX’s peers are little changed today, which reinforces that SPCX and LUNR shares are trading on their own news rather than a sector wave. Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) stock is down 1% to $3.25, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are up 2% to $72.91.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is essentially flat despite last week’s Q2 revenue beat and Iridium deal narrative, and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) shares are up 2% to $24.15. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is close to flat, a reminder that this narrow thematic fund carries meaningful sector-concentration risk given its focused holdings roster.
What to Watch
Intuitive Machines reports tomorrow morning. Investors can watch for backlog updates, integration progress on the Lanteris and Goonhilly deals, and any commentary tightening the $900 million to $1 billion full-year revenue guidance. Historically, Intuitive Machines’ earnings days have averaged a +7% day-of move followed by a -7% one-week fade, so sustainability matters more than the initial reaction.
For SpaceX, the near-term test is whether today’s gains hold and whether the Morgan Stanley thesis draws follow-on analyst moves. A moderate position size makes sense in both names given SPCX’s post-IPO volatility and LUNR’s pre-earnings drift risk.
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