Shares of Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) are surging 10% to $19 and change on Friday morning, and Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) shares are gaining 10% as it approaches $3.50. The rest of the space complex is not tagging along, with Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock up 1% to $81.25 and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares up just 1% to $72.32.
This is a two-name, earnings-driven move concentrated in LUNR and SPCE. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is down 2% at $138, Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) shares are up 1% to $25, and the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO), a space-focused fund, is flat at $48 and change.
Backlog, Not the Quarter, Fuels LUNR
Intuitive Machines actually missed on both lines. Q2 2026 revenue of $206.2 million came in below the roughly $221.1 million consensus per Fiscal.ai, though it was more than four times the $50.3 million a year earlier. The GAAP loss widened to $0.29 per share from $0.22, missing the expected $0.10 loss.
Evidently, Intuitive Machines stock is rallying anyway because backlog reached approximately $1.8 billion, up $1.5 billion from the end of 2025, split 37% civil, 49% commercial and 14% national security. Year-to-date bookings sit at $1.7 billion, including $1.2 billion during and after Q2, with authority-to-proceed awards that could add another $300 million in the second half. CEO Steve Altemus stated, “This marks the highest quarterly bookings in company history.”
Stifel Financial (NYSE:SF) added fuel this morning, upgrading Intuitive Machines to Buy from Hold while lowering its price target to $26 from $32. The analyst consensus 12-month target sits at $31.67 per Koyfin, with seven of nine analysts at Buy, one Hold and one Sell. Intuitive Machines maintained full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion with positive adjusted EBITDA expected, and ended the quarter with $367 million in cash.
Virgin Galactic Bounces Off a Rough Session
Virgin Galactic stock has no fresh catalyst today. SPCE shares fell 8% Thursday after the company pushed first commercial service to February 2027 from a prior target of the fourth quarter of 2026. Looking at our analyst roundup, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) cut its SPCE price target to $2 from $2.05 while keeping an Underweight rating, citing execution risk. Today’s move is a bounce off that decline.
On EPS, sources conflict. Reported figures show Virgin Galactic reporting a $0.58 loss against a $0.60 consensus, with revenue of $0.13 million versus $0.41 million a year earlier, while an alternate compilation shows Stocktwits, citing Fiscal.ai, reporting a $0.50 loss against a $0.65 estimate. Virgin Galactic CEO Michael Colglazier stated that the $750,000 tranche of spaceflight expeditions was “oversubscribed and booked out ahead of schedule.” The consensus 12-month target is $3.52 per Koyfin, meaning Morgan Stanley’s $2 target sits below where Virgin Galactic shares currently trade.
The SpaceX Thread and Names Sitting Out
SpaceX is actually inside the Intuitive Machines story. Intuitive Machines made a $17 million IM-4 milestone payment to SpaceX during the quarter, and IM-3 is scheduled for a January-to-March 2027 launch window on a SpaceX Falcon 9. Yet SpaceX shares are flat while a key customer surges.
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Planet Labs are barely moving despite the two headline gainers. The muted action across the rest of the complex, plus the UFO ETF’s tiny gain, shows the move is narrow.
What to Watch
The next tests for Intuitive Machines are whether authority-to-proceed awards get definitized on schedule (management says timing, not demand, is the swing factor for guidance) and whether the coming CLPS 2.0 contract exceeds $10 billion as expected.
For Virgin Galactic, traders can watch for whether the February 2027 service date holds, with the October 2026 captive carry flight test serving as the next tangible catalyst. Positive quarterly cash flow is expected within 2027, but Q3 2026 free cash flow is guided to a $(95) million to $(100) million range.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks