Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI | SMCI Price Prediction) shares are rising 6% to $40 midday Thursday, extending a rally that began after Tuesday afternoon’s fiscal Q4 report. Peer AI server names are climbing alongside it, with Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) stock up 3% to $498 and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) shares gaining 3% to $60.50.
The iShares U.S. Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:IYW) is up 1.43% to $256.70, a comparatively muted move because the AI-server trio don’t have an outsized influence inside a fund dominated by mega-caps. This is day two of the AI server rally, and today’s continuation is driven by external read-across, not a fresh Super Micro catalyst.
Lenovo Earnings and Analyst Calls Extend the Rally
Hong Kong-listed Lenovo reported April-June revenue up 43% year over year to $26.94 billion, well ahead of the $22.44 billion consensus. The company’s adjusted net income jumped 176% to $1.1 billion, with the AI server pipeline swelling to $54 billion, up 157% sequentially.
CEO Yuanqing Yang stated that AI is emerging as a clear growth engine across every business group. Because Lenovo competes directly with Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, the read-across is lifting the entire sector.
Morgan Stanley also upgraded its U.S. IT hardware industry view to In-Line from Cautious, citing refresh cycles, pull-forwards, and AI demand. Goldman Sachs separately named Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) its top U.S. hardware picks. Morningstar declared of Dell, “If AI demand is truly durable, the cyclicality of the business will be reduced, and Dell’s valuation is quite attractive.”
The Super Micro Numbers Behind the Setup
Super Micro Computer reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $11.12 billion, up 93.2% year over year, a touch shy of the roughly $11.2 billion projected. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $1.59 expected, and gross margin recovered to 17.5% from 9.5% a year earlier.
CEO Charles Liang credited “a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of our optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions.” The company disclosed record backlog entering fiscal 2027 and more than $60 billion in fiscal 2026 new orders. Super Micro Computer’s guidance is what caught the market’s attention: Q1 FY2027 sales of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion versus roughly $11.9 billion expected, and full-year FY2027 revenue of $65 billion to $72 billion versus roughly $53.3 billion expected.
The risks are real. Super Micro Computer’s full-year operating cash flow was negative $6.8 billion on a working capital build, and the board is running an independent review of export-control transactions. Results remain preliminary and unaudited.
Valuation Debate Puts Super Micro in the Spotlight
On a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, Super Micro Computer stock trades at a P/E ratio of 21.03x, versus 39.54x for Dell stock and 56.76x for Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock. That gap is fueling retail chatter, with the Super Micro community actively debating a possible short squeeze and a valuation re-rating. A lower multiple reflects the market’s doubts as much as any opportunity, so treat that as speculation, not a catalyst.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits is extremely bullish on Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise with extremely high message volume. Analyst coverage tilts constructive, with 19 of 27 analysts rating Dell stock Buy or Strong Buy, and 13 of 22 holding a positive view on Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock, per Koyfin.
ETF Reaction and What to Watch
The iShares U.S. Technology ETF holds all three names, but the weights are minimal. Per its April 30, 2026 disclosure, Dell sits at 0.4% of net assets, Hewlett Packard Enterprise at 0.2%, and Super Micro Computer at 0.1%.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) alone comprises 16.2%, with the balance concentrated in a handful of other mega-cap technology names. Investors buying the ETF for AI server exposure get very little of it, and the concentration risk in a few giants is worth flagging.
Investors can watch for whether Super Micro Computer’s Q1 FY2027 revenue lands inside the $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion guide, whether operating cash flow normalizes as backlog converts, and whether the export-control review closes cleanly.
The next anticipated indicator for the sector could be whether Dell stock can clear $500 as the AI server read-across continues. If it does, the group’s momentum has room to run into next week’s trading; if it stalls, expect the valuation debate around Super Micro Computer to intensify.
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