Shares of neocloud operators are sliding hard at midday Tuesday as investors reprice the group against a fresh set of AI spending worries and a sharp move higher in long rates. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is off 6.8%, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) is down 5.2%, and TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) is lower by 6.5%.
Overspend Fears and a 19-Year Yield High Spark the Selloff
Three catalysts are converging. First, Anthropic told investors over the weekend that its ARR hit $65 billion at the end of July, and OpenAI recently reported ARR of $40 billion. Both numbers are huge, but they landed below the whisper figures circulating in Silicon Valley. On the All In Podcast, Gavin Baker said he had heard Anthropic ARR was over $80 billion. Reuters separately reported Anthropic is pointing to 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, versus investor expectations (once again from Gavin Baker and co-host David Sacks on the All-In Podcast) that had Anthropic exiting next year at an ARR of $400 billion to $500 billion.
Second, a Wall Street Journal analysis found that nine top tech companies had some $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly related to AI, with those obligations growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about $600 billion over the past year. That report puts the durability of hyperscaler AI commitments back on the table, which is exactly the backlog investors are pricing into neocloud equity values (the power, cooling, and networking suppliers riding the same buildout sit in a very different part of the stack, and we profiled seven of them in a free AI infrastructure report).
Third, and most important for this group, rates ripped higher. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at 5.33%, a 19-year high. The 10-year yield at 4.71% sits in the 96th percentile of the past 12 months. Neoclouds are the most capital-hungry business model in AI. When the cost of that capital rises, the economics of each new project get worse and the market applies a bigger discount to revenue arriving years out.
The Gap Between Business Momentum and Today’s Repricing
Recent operating news has been strong. CoreWeave reported Q2 revenue of $2.6 billion, up 112% year over year and pushed through a 25% price increase across SKUs in July (see the company’s SEC filings). Nebius delivered Q2 revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year and a capacity auction that cleared 15% above the previous highest Blackwell price, per its SEC filings. TeraWulf signed a 20-year Anthropic lease at Justified Data Campus, disclosed in its SEC filings.
Recent price action has largely reflected that. CoreWeave entered the session up roughly 45% over the past month and 48% year to date. Nebius came in up about 51% over the past month and 221% year to date. TeraWulf is still up 53% year to date and 96% over the past year.
That is the disconnect readers should focus on. Operating news has trended up. The market is repricing the financing environment underneath these businesses, while the demand story on top of it remains intact.
The Big Picture Today: Rotation Out of AI Infrastructure
The intraday action fits the familiar pattern. Healthcare, consumer defensive, utilities and energy are up today, while technology is by far the biggest losing sector. When yields spike and AI spending durability is questioned in the same 48 hours, capital rotates out of the highest-beta, most leveraged AI names. Neoclouds sit at the sharp end.
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