Shares of Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) surged Wednesday afternoon, up 34% to $259.20 following a blowout second-quarter report. The move puts one of Michael Burry‘s disclosed shorts squarely on the defensive.
Burry, the Scion Asset Management founder known for “The Big Short,” has flagged short positions in both Nebius and Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR). Palantir shares declined 2% today to $171.04, but Palantir stock is up 35% over the past month, a painful stretch for any bear.
Short-sellers can be early, and both names still trade at premium multiples. Still, this week’s disclosures and price action are making the near-term thesis harder to hold.
Nebius Q2 Report Reprices the Debate
Nebius posted Q2 2026 revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year (YoY), with AI Cloud revenue climbing 514%. Annualized run-rate revenue hit $3 billion, and the company raised its year-end 2026 contracted power target to 5 GW.
The details cut directly at Burry’s neocloud short thesis, which centers on the argument that GPU depreciation runs faster than operators model, eroding real economics. Nebius disclosed “[n]ew pricing initiatives in early Q3, such as our first-ever auction and short-term capacity deals, are showing promise.” The company added, “We see a price opportunity in the $40-50 million per MW range and we signed our first one this week.”
At $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, the payoff period for a data center runs about one year. Management also stated that the “expected payback period for the associated capex and related operating costs for Q2 deals is 1 year and 10 months, down from our two-to-three year payback period previously.” CEO Arkady Volozh said Nebius “closed our largest AI Cloud deals on our strongest terms to date, at prices that represent a step-change in the economics of our business.”
Palantir’s Commercial Engine Keeps Compounding
Palantir reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.935 billion, up 92.8% YoY, with U.S. commercial revenue soaring 149%. Adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.28 consensus, marking Palantir’s ninth consecutive EPS beat.
CEO Alex Karp stated, “Demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed” and added, “This quarter was otherworldly: our U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year, our overall revenue grew 93% year-over-year, and our Rule of 40 score climbed to 155%.” Palantir raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion, implying 82% YoY growth.
The Depreciation Argument Meets a Counterexample
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is also part of this week’s story, with CoreWeave stock up 19% today to $107.73. On its earnings call Tuesday, CoreWeave said A100 contracts (an NVIDIA chip first released in 2020) are being signed through 2029, indicating that a nine-year-old GPU still commands meaningful economics well past its assumed depreciation window.
That real-world data point challenges the faster-depreciation core of the neocloud short case. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) sits behind the buildout, and NVIDIA gained 3% today. If GPU useful life extends deeper than skeptics assume, the reported margins at Nebius and CoreWeave look more durable, not less.
What to Watch
The bear case isn’t dead for these stocks. Nebius still posted a $190.4 million net loss on $5.66 billion in quarterly capex, and Palantir’s valuation remains stretched at a $393.5 billion market cap. Capital intensity and multiple compression are real risks investors can watch for.
However, the recent disclosures reset the burden of proof. Faster-than-assumed depreciation is the linchpin of Burry’s thesis, and this week’s pricing power at Nebius, the multi-year A100 contracts at CoreWeave, and Palantir’s accelerating U.S. commercial book all pressure that view.
Market watchers can check for whether Nebius holds today’s gains into next week, whether Palantir stock reclaims its recent highs, and whether Scion’s next 13F shows any change in positioning. It may also be helpful to keep an eye on the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (NASDAQ:SKYY) as it tracks a basket of cloud-segment assets. For now, momentum favors the bulls, and shareholders should consider keeping their position sizes disciplined given the volatility on both sides of this trade.
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