Nike Keeps Tanking: One Pro Expects 85% Returns Moving Forward

Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) trades at $39.09, while Wall Street’s average price target sits at $50.66, an implied upside of roughly 30%.

Nike is the world’s largest athletic footwear company and one of the most contentious names in consumer discretionary. CEO Elliott Hill’s Win Now turnaround is grinding into a second year, and shares reflect the frustration. Bernstein’s Aneesha Sherman and Nick Anderson carry a $72 target, implying roughly 84% upside. That gap between price and the most bullish coverage is the real story.

A Year That Erased Nearly Half the Stock

Nike is down 47.81% over the trailing 12 months. Shares have slid 37.68% year to date and another 7.17% in the past week alone.

The Q1 FY27 report crystallized the problem. Nike beat EPS by 465%, but a $986 million one-time IEEPA tariff recovery added $0.52 per share. Strip it out and EPS was $0.20. Revenue fell 1% year over year, Greater China dropped 17% currency-neutral, and Converse collapsed roughly 32%.

Insiders piled on. From mid-June through early August, CFO Matt Friend, President Amy Montagne, and three other senior executives sold across 13 disclosed transactions in the $41 to $46 range. Open-market executive purchases were zero.

The $72 Bull Case Bernstein Is Not Backing Off

Bernstein’s thesis rests on three ideas: Nike is scaling back over-distributed “Classics” like Air Force 1 and Dunk to clear channel inventory, painful but necessary; gross margins should recover before revenue does as promotional clearance winds down; and performance running and basketball continue to grow across major regions while lifestyle transitions.

Management partially supports the view. Running has posted five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, adding roughly $1 billion in FY26 and gaining 5 market share points in statement footwear across Western Europe and North America. Q1 FY27 gross margin hit 49.2%, up 890 basis points, though the tariff recovery accounted for most of the lift. CFO Matt Friend now expects gross margin expansion to begin in Q1 FY27, earlier than prior guidance.

Coverage is largely on the sidelines: 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 25 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. Bernstein’s $72 sits well above the $50.66 consensus. Hill has said Win Now will sunset by the end of calendar 2026, with Investor Day on November 16 to 17 setting a 12 to 18 month window for the thesis to inflect.

The Footwear Group Fell Together, Nike Fell Deepest

The athletic footwear peer group sold off broadly over the past year. Nike is the deepest decliner.

Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) trades at $115.74 against a $127.92 target for about 10.5% upside. Shares are down 41.68% over one year on Americas comp weakness. Coverage skews to 1 Buy, 29 Hold, 3 Sell, 1 Strong Sell.

On Holding (NYSE:ONON) trades at $31.31 against a $45.40 target, roughly 45% upside. Down 30.94% over a year despite Q2 revenue growth of 13.5% and gross margin of 65.4%. Coverage skews bullish at 6 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell.

Deckers (NYSE:DECK) trades at $90.11 against a $122.81 target, roughly 36% upside. HOKA keeps growing double-digits and management raised FY27 EPS guidance. Coverage runs 5 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell. Down just 12.48% over a year, DECK fell least.

On consensus targets alone, ONON leads the group with 45% implied upside. Only Bernstein’s $72 Nike call sits above it.

What the Consensus Actually Says

Nike currently trades at $39.09 with a $50.66 consensus target and roughly 30% implied upside, drawn from 39 analyst ratings.

Shares are down 47.81% over the trailing year and 37.68% year to date. The S&P 500 is up 20.08% and 13.31% over those windows.

Nike trades at 19 trailing P/E and 23 forward P/E with a 3.95% dividend yield. Bernstein’s $72 implies 84% upside if the turnaround inflects.

The Investment Case

The bull thesis holds if running momentum, the World Cup activation, and the Sport Offense reorganization stabilize NIKE Direct and Greater China over the next two quarters. The bear thesis strengthens if Converse’s collapse widens, China accelerates lower, and underlying ex-tariff revenue keeps sliding.

Bull case: management delivers margin expansion in Q1 FY27, the $18 billion buyback retires shares at depressed prices, and Investor Day reframes the growth story.

Bear case: eight straight EPS beats mean little when net income leans on tariff recoveries, China is falling faster than management concedes, and insider selling clusters into every rally.

Bernstein’s $72 requires a lot to break right. At $39 with a fortress balance sheet, a 4% yield, and running actually growing, the setup tilts toward a slow rebuild over a value trap.

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