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Bernstein aerospace and defense analyst Doug Harned raised his SpaceX price target to $248 and reiterated an Overweight rating, framing orbital data centers as a swing factor that could help drive SpaceX to over $600 billion in annual revenue by 2031.
SpaceX Could Launch One Starship per Day by the End of 2027
Harned’s core argument for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is that compute-in-space pricing is real. “We are definitely also very positive on the outlook for SpaceX. And I think what is so important here is that if they can get the orbital AI, basically orbital data centers, to work, we think this is still a very exciting opportunity,” he told CNBC.
He noted deals at $30-$55 per watt, adding that “this is not the pricing they’ve seen in these deals, which are between 30 and 50 to $55 a watt. That pricing is not really a surge price. They’re out in the market, and they’re seeing pretty attractive pricing opportunities.”
Launch volume hinges on Starship reusability. Harned said SpaceX has “even pulled up the time frame in which they think they can get large numbers of Starship launches out there. In fact, if you look at their plan now, it is to be able to have essentially pretty close to one Starship launch a day when you get to the end of 2027“ across five launch pads.
Bernstein Conservatively Models $600B in Revenue by 2031
Bernstein’s models are more conservative than Elon Musk’s guidance, but they still show the business will grow at an impressive trajectory: “We’ve taken a much more conservative view in our whole ramp rate forward out to 2031. But even with that conservative view, where we get out to around $600 billion in revenues in 2031, which is significantly below what they’re talking about, we think this is still a really powerful opportunity here.” The math requires roughly 3,500 Starship launches in 2031, with Launch 14 in the coming weeks serving as the next reusability proof point.
Harned reads recent SpaceX weakness as a buying opportunity, citing capex concerns and lockup fears. He remains skeptical on direct-to-device wireless and views Starlink’s consumer and enterprise broadband as an already-profitable foundation underneath the AI story.
How This Reads for Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is pursuing a comparable vertically integrated space stack, and management is already selling into the same demand curve. In its Q4 2025 update, the company introduced advanced silicon solar arrays targeted at gigawatt-scale space-based data centers.
On the Q2 FY2026 call, CEO Peter Beck said orbital data centers are “a real opportunity” and that with the largest space-grade solar manufacturer in the world, “if they turn out to be a real thing, I think we’ll be pretty deeply entrenched and well positioned to capitalize on it.”
Rocket Lab posted record Q2 FY2026 revenue of $234.07 million, up 62% year over year, a GAAP loss of $0.08 per share, and a record $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% year over year. Guidance calls for Q3 revenue of $250 million to $265 million, and Beck flagged more than $1 billion in new contracts already signed in Q3, including a $397 million Space Force Flatellite award and a $266 million Haste missile-defense deal.
Shares closed at $82.63 on August 17, 2026, up 87.46% over the past year and 15.04% year to date, against analysts’ consensus price target of $112.94.
Key Takeaways
Harned’s new $248 SpaceX price target values the company’s potential to move AI computing into orbit. SpaceX must now prove Starship will be able to launch frequently enough to support the economics.
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