During a highly anticipated segment on the latest All-In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya laid out a detailed underwriting case to justify why SpaceX is worth a full two trillion dollars right now. He explained that a twenty-times sales multiple is actually a bargain when you properly measure it against the massive commercial markets that Starlink and Starship are preparing to unlock. This structural framework points to an $18 billion revenue print last year and a clear path toward thirty billion this year, boosted by new orbital computing platforms.
The 20x Revenue Math
When you break down Chamath’s valuation framework, his underwriting model effectively anchors the long-term forward multiple directly to a single exploding infrastructure business line. He chooses to peg his numbers strictly to the massive revenue potential of the terrestrial data center opportunity, treating launch services, consumer Starlink subscriptions, defense contracts, and future orbital space-compute capabilities as pure valuation upside. This aggressive thesis becomes much easier to underwrite when you look at the company’s official S-1 prospectus data. The filing shows that the Connectivity segment generated $11,387 million of revenue in 2025 alongside a powerful expansion in core profitability metrics. Looking closely at the initial three months ended March 31, 2026, the digital infrastructure side of the business had already banked a stellar $3,257 million in baseline segment revenue.
Chamath explicitly frames Starlink as the most fundamentally important internet infrastructure project to emerge since the creation of the web itself. He projects that the terrestrial data center footprint alone can scale to generate hundreds of billions in annual run-rate revenue over the next decade. If even the lower threshold of that operational expansion materializes for the company, the steep initial multiple compresses down to a low single-digit forward number.
Rocket Lab: The Public Company That Trades Richer
When you look across the public markets for a pure-play aerospace comparison, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stands out as the cleanest analog, and the resulting multiple gap between the two companies is incredibly striking. Rocket Lab currently carries a $74.6 billion market cap against $679.6 million in trailing twelve-month revenue, pushing its trailing price-to-sales ratio to 110x and its enterprise-value-to-revenue multiple to 107x. Seeking Alpha estimates their forward revenue multiple at 74x after shares climbed 95% year to date through May 22, driven by a record $2.2 billion backlog and its high-profile selection for the Space Force’s Golden Dome space-based interceptor contract alongside Raytheon. CEO Peter Beck noted on the latest call that “Rocket Lab has delivered another exceptional quarter with record financial performance of more than $200 million in revenue.” If the public market is fully comfortable paying 74x forward sales for the clear number-two launcher, paying 20x for the market leader looks incredibly defensible.
Tesla: The Public Proxy With Direct Equity Exposure
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) carries a $1.60 trillion market cap on $97.9 billion of trailing revenue, a 16x price-to-sales ratio, and a forward P/E of 204. Tesla disclosed a $2 billion investment in SpaceX equity in its Q1 FY2026 results, plus a partnership to build a vertically integrated chip fab. Shares are down 5% year to date but up 25% over one year. Reddit chatter reflects the cross-current: an r/stocks thread titled “SpaceX IPO Overpriced?” pulled 273 upvotes and 329 comments by May 22, suggesting retail is wrestling with the same multiple question Chamath is answering.
The NVIDIA Parallel
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) provides the template for what infrastructure compounding looks like in real time. Q1 FY2027 revenue hit $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with Data Center revenue of $75.25 billion. Chamath’s view is that Jensen Huang needs a partner capable of DC-to-DC power transformation at data center scale, and Musk is probably the only one, with in-space data centers roughly three years out. NVIDIA shares are up 15% year to date and 62% over one year, validating that infrastructure-of-the-future narratives can support multiples that look extreme on a trailing basis.
What Investors Should Watch
Understanding the broader takeaway from Chamath’s financial modeling is much more directional than absolute. He calls this “the beginning of the beginning” and frames SpaceX’s massive technical edge as a permanent capital moat that continuously compounds into a ruthless technology and execution advantage. Public market investors can gain thematic exposure through pure-play aerospace names like Rocket Lab or big tech compute partners like NVIDIA. Watching the upcoming SpaceX IPO timeline, the ongoing Starship launch cadence, and global Starlink ARPU stabilization will tell you exactly whether that premium forward multiple compresses.
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