Quantum computing pure-plays remain the market’s most polarizing bet: pre-profit, richly valued, and levered to policy tailwinds that keep tightening. After the White House quantum executive orders issued June 22, 2026 designated computing, sensing, networking, and cybersecurity as national priorities, the sector caught a fresh bid. All three of the names below rallied hard in the past month, yet Wall Street’s price targets still imply meaningful room to run. Ranked by analyst-implied upside from current levels, here is how the trio stacks up heading into the back half of August.
One caveat up front: these are aggressive speculative positions. Beta readings for all three sit north of 2, and each carries negative forward EPS. Treat the upside math as a probability-weighted range, not a promise.
1. Rigetti Computing
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) leads the pack on implied upside. Shares closed at $18.67 on August 17, 2026, and the analyst target of $28.81, with 69% bullish sentiment and nine buy or strong-buy ratings, points to base-case upside of roughly 81.4%. That gap has widened as the stock lagged peers, sliding 15.71% year-to-date even after a 32.32% one-month rebound.
The bull case is government-backed. Rigetti signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in potential CHIPS Act funding over three years, a validation of its superconducting chiplet architecture. Q2 revenue rose to $5.14 million, up 185.3% year over year, and the company holds $541.29 million in cash with zero debt. CEO Subodh Kulkarni frames the trajectory clearly: "Our objective remains to reach approximately 1,000 qubits, two qubit gate fidelities of 99.9% and gate speeds below 40 nanoseconds in roughly three years."
Risk to watch: the DOC agreement is a letter of intent, not a definitive contract, and any final structure will include issuance of securities to the department, meaning dilution. GAAP net loss reached $52.61 million in Q2, and adjusted EPS missed consensus by 7.99%.
2. IonQ
IonQ (NYSE:IONQ | IONQ Price Prediction) is the sector’s fundamental leader and still carries substantial implied upside. Shares finished at $46.84 on August 17, 2026. The consensus analyst target of $67.68 implies 68.19% upside, with 85% bullish sentiment and 11 buy or strong-buy ratings versus zero sells. The stock has surged 34.68% in the past month.
Q2 was the strongest quarter in company history. Revenue hit $80.05 million, up 286.8% year over year, beating consensus by 20.52%, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $280 million to $290 million, excluding SkyWater. Remaining performance obligations grew 297% year over year. CEO Niccolo de Masi captured the strategic setup on the call: "We enter the second half of this year as a clear technology leader, critical merchant supplier, and vital ecosystem enabler for the entire quantum industry." The SkyWater acquisition closed July 31, 2026, creating what management calls the only vertically integrated full-stack quantum platform.
Risk to watch: GAAP net loss widened to negative $1.87 billion, distorted by a $1.6 billion non-cash warrant mark-to-market, and stock-based compensation ran $141.8 million in Q2. Beta of 3.301 means outsized drawdowns on any sentiment reversal.
3. D-Wave Quantum
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) carries the smallest implied upside of the three but the strongest analyst breadth. At $20.87 on August 17, 2026, the shares trade below the $35.25 analyst target that implies 19.7% base-case upside. Sentiment is the most lopsided in the group: 94% bullish, with 15 buy or strong-buy ratings and one hold.
The commercial traction story is what analysts are underwriting. First-half 2026 bookings surged to $35.5 million from $2.9 million a year earlier, and remaining performance obligations climbed to $40.7 million, up 668% year over year. Commercial customers now account for 62.4% of Q2 revenue, versus 45.1% a year ago. AT&T is integrating D-Wave’s annealing platform into agentic AI workflows, reducing processing time from approximately one hour to less than 15 seconds. CEO Alan Baratz argues the moat is deployment, not hype: "D-Wave is translating technical leadership into commercial progress."
Risk to watch: Q2 revenue of $3.08 million missed consensus by 23.63%, adjusted EBITDA loss widened 85% to $37.1 million, and cash fell 33% year over year to $546.2 million. Gate-model commercial relevance is not expected until roughly 2032, so the near-term thesis rests entirely on annealing bookings converting to recognized revenue.
What to Watch Next
The IonQ Investor Day at the NYSE on September 8, 2026 is the next major sector catalyst, with combined SkyWater guidance expected. For Rigetti, the milestone is a definitive Department of Commerce agreement. For D-Wave, it is Q4, where management flagged two annealing system shipments that could dominate full-year revenue. Position sizing matters more than conviction in this cohort. When beta runs north of 2, the same tailwinds cutting the upside path can reverse just as quickly.
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